The Dallas Cowboys head to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots on Sunday in what is, to date, their toughest match-up of the 2019 season. The contest will feature the best offense in the game heading into hostile territory to test their mettle against the top defensive unit the NFL has to offer.
The Patriots enter the game as six-point favorites. This is business as usual for a team that’s been running roughshod over the league for nearly two decades. It marks the 30th time since 2015 that New England is favored at home by at least six points. They are 20-7-3 against the spread in those games, winning 26 of them outright.
The Cowboys on the other hand are in a position they’ve not seen frequently since quarterback Dak Prescott’s arrival in 2016, finding themselves as underdogs on the road of six points or more only three times.
Prescott didn’t play much in the season finale of his rookie campaign, a loss against the Philadelphia Eagles. They won the other two outright.
While this game features the best the league has to offer offensively and defensively, Dallas finds itself on the short end of the stick in the special teams department. This has been talked about in this space before, but against a team as well coached and constantly prepared as the Patriots, hidden yardage could very well be the difference.
The pick comes down to one thing: the line is too high. The 2019 Dallas Cowboys have shown they can move the ball and score points. They’ve had the best offense by DVOA since Week 1. Prescott is playing at the highest possible level and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has been pushing almost all the right buttons.
New England head coach Bill Belichick is known for taking away what a team does best, but the Cowboys have the weapons to attack a team in multiple ways.
The Verdict: Cowboys cover +6 and the OVER (44.5) hits.
On the Year: 7-3 ATS, 7-3 over/under
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