Against the Spread: Cowboys-Eagles Week 16 rematch trend analysis

The pick against the spread for Week 16’s match-up between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.

The game that will likely determine the fate of the moribund NFC East has arrived, with the Dallas Cowboys set to play the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday afternoon. A win for Dallas will lock up the division and make them the first team to take back-to-back NFC East crowns since the Eagles four consecutive divisional titles starting in 2001.

A loss likely means missing out on the playoffs, as is tradition recently in odd years around the Metroplex. It likely means a regime change for the first time in a decade and it almost certainly means a long off-season full of questions and doubt.

Forget all that for the moment.

The Cowboys head to Lincoln Financial Field as 2.5 point favorites. Philadelphia has been atrocious against the spread on the year, failing to cover in nine of their 14 games in the 2019 season. As a home underdog the Eagles are 0-2 both straight up and against the spread, though both of those games were against teams that are fighting for home field advantage in the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots.

The Eagles have had trouble covering inside the division, going just 1-3 in those instances while Dallas has cleaned up, easily covering their four divisional games to date handily.

Both teams enter the game missing key cogs to their lineups, though it appears that Philadelphia’s offensive arsenal has been hit the hardest, missing nearly the entirety of their receiving corps, making tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert the primary target for quarterback Carson Wentz. Wentz will also be without offensive tackle Lane Johnson, who is among the best in the league at his position.

While the Cowboys are no stranger to injuries on the season, when compared to their Sunday counterpart they are the picture of health. The most concerning issue is the health of quarterback Dak Prescott’s throwing shoulder, though he claims he’s played through worse.

With that in mind…

The Verdict: Prescott plays through pain well enough for the Cowboys to overwhelm their biggest divisional foe. Dallas win and cover (-2.5) while the OVER (46) hits.

On the year: 8-6 ATS, 9-5 over/under.

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