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The Miami Dolphins (9-8) battle the Buffalo Bills (13-3) on Saturday on Wild Card Weekend. Kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Dolphins vs. Bills odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
Miami beat the New York Jets 11-6 last Sunday covering as 3.5-point home favorites in 1 one of the biggest bad beats of the season — scoring a safety on the final play of the game due to a fumbled Jets lateral. The Dolphins have covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games and 6 of their last 10. This season, they are 9-8 against the spread (ATS). Miami has the 6th ranked offense this season, averaging 364.5 yards per game (ypg).
The Bills took down the Patriots 35-23 last week, covering as 8-point home favorites. They are currently on a 7-game winning streak, excluding the Cincinnati game which was wiped from the schedule. This season, Buffalo is 8-7-1 ATS. Buffalo’s defense ranked 6th in the league this season, allowing only 319.1 ypg while its offense is ranked 2nd with 397.6 ypg.
The AFC East rivals split the season series with Miami winning at home 21-19 in Week 3 and Buffalo winning at home 32-29 in Week 15.
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Dolphins at Bills odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:43 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dolphins +700 (bet $100 to win $700) | Bills -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins +13.5 (-110) | Bills -13.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Dolphins at Bills key injuries
Dolphins
- OT Terron Armstead (toe/pec/knee/hip) questionable
- OT Kendall Lamm (ankle) questionable
- RB Raheem Mostert (thumb) questionable
- QB Tua Tagovailo (concussion) out
- QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee/finger) questionable
Bills
- WR Isaiah McKenzie (hamstring) questionable
- NT Jordan Phillips (shoulder) questionable
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Dolphins at Bills picks and predictions
Prediction
Bills 31, Dolphins 17
Moneyline
PASS.
The -1000 odds for the Bills are far too high to make a moneyline play worth the risk.
Against the spread
PASS.
In a game without Tagovailoa heading the Dolphins’ offense, it seems logical to bet the Bills -13.5 (-110), but 2 touchdowns is too large of a spread to be comfortable with, especially when Miami still has its top offensive weapons in WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Keep an eye on the turnover differential as Miami has the 30th-ranked defense in the league with only 14 turnovers while Buffalo has the 30th-ranked offense in the league with 27.
Over/Under
BET OVER 43.5 (-110).
The Dolphins Over/Under record is 8-9 while Buffalo’s is 6-10. Miami hit the Over 6 times in its final 10 regular season games and the Bills’ Over hit 3 times in their final 3 games.
In a divisional Wild Card Weekend matchup, both the Dolphins and Bills will look for big plays and a lot of points to ignite their respective playoff pushes.
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