AC Milan will battle Inter Milan at San Siro, the home of both Milan sides, with AC as the home side. Kickoff in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League semifinal is set for 3 p.m. ET (Paramount+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the AC Milan vs. Inter Milan odds, and make our best Champions League bets, picks and predictions.
AC Milan sits 5th in Serie A competition, having an 11-2-4 (4 draws) home record. It is led offensively by F Rafael Leao, who has 12 goals in 32 matches. It took down Napoli a combined 2-1 in the quarterfinals and Tottenham a combined 1-0 in the Round of 16.
Inter Milan sits 4th in Serie A competition and is 8-6-3 on the road. Its strength is defense, allowing just 1.03 goals per game. Inter is led offensively by F Lautaro Martinez, who has 19 goals in 34 matches. It took down Benfica a combined 5-3 in the quarterfinals and Porto a combined 1-0 in the Round of 16.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
AC Milan vs. Inter Milan odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:02 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: AC Milan +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Inter Milan +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Draw +210
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: +130 | U: -185)
World class soccer coverage all in one place: Get ESPN+
AC Milan vs. Inter Milan picks and predictions
Prediction
Inter Milan 2, AC Milan 1
Moneyline (ML)
LEAN INTER MILAN (+140).
Inter Milan has been playing at a high level as of late, winning 5 straight games, 3 of which were on the road. It won all 3 of those road games by multiple goals as well. Inter beat Benfica on the road in the quarterfinals as well.
AC, on the other hand, is just 2-0-4 in its last 6 games, and it has had as many or fewer expected goals than its opponent in 3 of its last 4 games, so it hasn’t necessarily been playing better than those it has faced.
Considering this won’t be a true road match for Inter and it is playing at a high level than AC, take INTER MILAN (+140).
Over/Under (O/U)
BET OVER 2.5 (+130).
Both teams allow more than a goal per game in league play, and Inter has gone Over this total in 4 of its last 6 matches.
It has had over 1 expected goal in 9 of its last 10 matches (2 of those in Copa Italia did not keep track of expected goals). It is averaging 1.82 goals per game in league play and scored 5 goals in 2 games against Benfica.
AC is averaging 1.62 goals per game in Serie A play, so it also has a successful and potent offense. It has gone Over in 4 of 10 Champions League matches which helps drives the value on the Over here.
Ultimately, considering the familiarity of the sides, both in Italy’s top league, and the dominant attacking, take the OVER 2.5 (+130).
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
Check out Pro Soccer Wire: For the American soccer fan, USA TODAY Sports Media Group’s website provides a fresh look at the beautiful game.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter. Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=53935]