The No. 8 seed Cincinnati Bearcats (18-14) will take on the top-seeded Houston Cougars (26-5) Friday in an AAC Tournament quarterfinal at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth. Tip is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we look at the Cincinnati vs. Houston odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Cincinnati, which was 7-11 in conference play, took down the ninth-seeded East Carolina Pirates 74-63 in Thursday’s opening round to snap a five-game losing streak. The Bearcats covered the spread as 5.5-point favorites but are still just 11-17-3 against the spread (ATS) overall.
Cincinnati lost by 22 at home against the Cougars and by 18 on the road at Houston, failing to cover as 7-point and 15-point underdogs.
Houston, the AAC’s regular-season champion after going 15-3, received a bye and will play its tourney opener Friday. The Cougars beat the Bearcats twice during the season, by 22 as 7-point road favorites Feb. 6 and by 18 as 15-point home favorites March 1.
The Cougars, 19-12 ATS, finished with the nation’s best opponents’ field-goal percentage, holding teams to just 37.2% from the field. They own non-conference wins over Butler, Oregon and Virginia with a 2-point loss to now-No. 12 Wisconsin and a 1-point loss to Alabama on its resume.
Houston, which is 10-8 ATS in AAC matchups – Cincy is 7-11-1 – is ranked No. 18 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Cincinnati vs. Houston odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:48 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cincinnati +520 (bet $100 to win $520) | Houston -850 (bet $850 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Cincinnati +11.5 (-107) | Houston -11.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 133.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
[tipico]
Cincinnati vs. Houston odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Houston 73, Cincinnati 59
Money line
PASS.
It’s March and a conference quarterfinal with an -850 money line is unplayable. Cincinnati didn’t get close to Houston’s level in the first two matchups, so its +520 ML also isn’t great value.
Against the spread
BET HOUSTON -11.5 (-115).
One can argue Cincinnati barely snuck by in the first round. The end score doesn’t showcase Cincinnati’s struggles as it trailed ECU 63-62 with under 4 minutes to go.
It’s how you finish, not start, but the Bearcats didn’t show enough despite covering for one to believe they can hang with the Cougars, especially after the two beatdowns by Houston this season.
Cincinnati’s weakness plays incredibly poorly into Houston’s strength. The Bearcats rank 328th in field-goal percentage at just 40.7%. The Cougars’ defense is the real deal and will wreak havoc on the ‘Cats.
Over/Under
LEAN to the UNDER 133.5 (-115).
Houston has the best defense percentage-wise in the nation, and the Bearcats do not typically shoot the ball well. They shot just 41.7% from the field in their opening victory vs. the Pirates.
Also, Cincinnati didn’t score over 60 in either matchup against Houston earlier this season and only had one of the Overs hit because the Cougars went for 80, more than their 75.9 per game average.
Both teams have been better hitting Unders as well. Cincinnati is 15-16 O/U, while Houston is 13-16-2 O/U.
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