A tale of 2 Jays: While Jaylen Brown exceeds expectations, Jayson Tatum struggles

In a season defying expectations of all sorts, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are confounding experts in nearly every way possible.

In the NBA, narratives can turn on a dime.

It seems like eons ago that we were collectively certain the Boston Celtics would be mostly treading water against the league’s better teams while doing well against the middle-of-the-pack and cellar-dweller franchises of the league.

In truth, it hasn’t even been a month to see that and many such expectations upended.

The same groupthink that had us all thinking last season’s Celtics would dominate the NBA had many assuming Jaylen Brown would probably be dealt by the end of the season, given how unlikely it was that he’d manage to grow enough as a player to warrant the near-max deal he’d likely garner at the end of the 2019-20 season.

Many believed this was the season Jayson Tatum would take a big step forward, cementing his place among the league’s top players, particularly after word his game had been “de-Kobe-fied” (whatever that means) started circulating.

Fast forward 3.5 weeks and Boston is coming off of the first loss after a 10-game winning streak behind some of the most consistent play of Brown’s career (including several wins over likely playoff teams), while third-year wing Tatum has struggled to put together the sort of leaps in production many had hoped to see this season.

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If nothing else, we should use this state of affairs to acknowledge just how complex things like chemistry and other contexts largely invisible to — or at least difficult to stay aware of — can impact assumptions about players and the teams they populate can have.

The Celtics have, if anything, in recent years been a sterling example of how popular narratives do not always line up with our expected results.

The cascading effects of divergent interests last season has illustrated how too much talent is indeed a thing one can have, if said talent isn’t properly distributed across the roster or able to effectively communicate.

And for at least the second time in his young career, Brown had to watch his stock drop just before a key career juncture due to his team not having the structure to amplify his strengths. Meanwhile, Tatum has yet to consistently attack on offense with the matured approach we instead are seeing from the other half of the so-called Jay Team.

What’s behind the unexpected (at least, by some) success of the former and shortcomings of the latter?

Quite possibly, something as simple as the irregular development curve shown by most rookies, who rarely make jumps in a linear fashion.

It could also simply be the current lack of high-level bigs and Brown’s propensity to guard rangier forwards on one end of the floor and opportunity relatively unmarred by injury on the other to explain the Georgia native’s newfound success.

Many have noted that the vote of confidence Celtics president Danny Ainge granted in signing the fourth-year wing to an extension ahead of restricted free agency may also be a factor. Whatever the cause, Marietta’s favorite son is currently logging 20.1 points via 15 attempts per game on .511 shooting from the floor, easily a career-high.

He’s even raised his 3-point shooting — an early-season source of consternation for Brown — to a healthy 38.9 %, while getting to the line 4.1 times per game and converting 78.4% of them (both career-highs).

Improved guard skills (dribbling and passing) coupled with the athletic ability to change speeds and draw contact, as well as improvements to his court awareness and body control have combined to elevate the former Golden Bear to an early fringe All-Star candidate, according to Yahoo Sports’ Chris Forsberg.

Inconsistent play, poor finishing, and a significant drop in two-point shooting percentages (which, despite improved accuracy and attempts from deep, fail to make up for an equivalent increase of shots closer to the cup) have conversely plagued Tatum’s anticipated breakout season unexpectedly.

To his credit, the Duke product has indeed boosted his reviled deep-two shooting percentages while also diminishing their frequency, instead boosting his attempts from beyond the arc and — in what ought to be a higher-percentage shot — close to the basket.

For Tatum, though, cold nights from the floor (such as a 1-of-18 shooting night he had against the Dallas Mavericks earlier in November) and the worst finishing numbers of his career for shots within three feet of the basket (44.4 % compared to a two-season average of 65.2%) have combined to suggest he’s actually regressing offensively.

At least so far this season.

There’s still plenty of time for both Celtics wings to make changes in their respective situations and, for that matter, for Boston to see its early-season win percentage shrink as they begin the tougher end of a West Coast road trip.

Consequently look to these unanticipated outcomes as a reminder that narratives are just that — incomplete analyses awaiting confirmation or refutation by results.

While the sort of players Boston hopes they have in hand for the long haul tend to exhibit big steps forward in their first three to four seasons, Tatum has time and Brown is showing exactly what the Celtics want to see from someone who recently inked a $115 million-dollar extension (including bonuses).

As to how it comes together and how far it will take the team, only the passage of time can tell.