The Indianapolis Colts’ offense is about to enter a very daunting part of their schedule.
In consecutive games, the Colts’ will face Houston, Minnesota, Buffalo, the New York Jets, and Detroit–all teams that rank among the best in a number of defensive categories.
By the advanced metric expected points added (EPA), all five of these defenses rank inside the top-11 of the NFL this season.
In short, EPA measures how well a team performs relative to expectation and takes into account the situation. For example, while a five-yard gain on a 3rd-and-three versus a five-yard gain on 3rd-and-six will look the same on the stat sheet, the latter carries more defensive value because a punt was forced, whereas, in the other situation, a first down was picked up by the offense.
By the more traditional points per game allowed metric, Minnesota, Buffalo, Detroit, and the Jets are all in the top-11. By yards per play allowed, Houston, the Jets, and Minnesota are all in the top-6, with Buffalo ranking in the top half of the league in that category as well.
But almost regardless of the metric, you get the idea. The up-and-down Indianapolis offense is in store for a difficult stretch.
For much of the season, this has been a very boom-or-bust unit. They entered Week 7 as one of the best at generating big plays, but have also struggled to sustain drives, ranking last in time of possession.
Certainly, big plays are great and lead to points, but that can’t be an offense’s only method for moving the ball either. As we’ve seen, that leads to incredibly inconsistent play.
Getting Jonathan Taylor back potentially soon–with Shane Steichen optimistic that he could even return to practice this week–will provide the offense as a whole with a big boost.
There’s the obvious needed juice that Taylor brings as a ball carrier, but oftentimes when there is a run game to lean on, it keeps the offense ahead of the sticks, which can open up the passing game and set up play-action and RPO opportunities.
It’s also not as if the Colts’ defense will have it easier either, having to go up against CJ Stroud, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, and Jared Goff.
The Lions, Bills, and Vikings’ offenses rank top-6 in points per game and the Texans are 14th. Three of the next four games will also come on the road.