Florida continued its winning way this week, beating North Florida by more than 50 points to improve to 12-0 overall and move up to No. 13 on the ESPN Basketball Power Index.
ESPN says Florida jumped three spots on its Christmas Eve update, but the Gators are up only one spot on the BPI since Gators Wire last checked in on Dec. 18.
Note: The BPI is updated daily; however Gators Wire provides weekly updates so as not to overwhelm fans with constant changes.
Florida’s BPI is 17.0, further broken down as 9.4 (11th) on offense and 7.6 (24th) on defense. Compared to last week’s BPI numbers — 16.3, 9.5 and 6.9 — the offensive rating is slightly down and the defense improved a significant amount. Those changes are good for a one-spot drop on offense and a nine-spot jump on defense.
“The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team’s W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day’s rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections.”
ESPN BPI Projections
ESPN now projects Florida to finish the season with a 23.6-7.8 overall record (0.4 more wins than last week) and a 10.6-7.4 record in conference play (0.4 more wins) based on results to date and BPI-based projections for remaining scheduled games. With only one more non-conference game on the schedule, those two projections will change identical amounts week-by-week moving forward.
The Gators have 4.4% odds to win the conference, up from 2.9% a week ago. Florida faces the 35th-toughest schedule moving forward. As expected, the conference schedule will be a gauntlet.
NCAA Tournament Resume
The 12-0 start has the Gators ranked fourth overall in strength of record — down from third a week ago — which translates to a No. 1 seed if the season were to end today. All four projected No. 1 seeds — Auburn, Florida, Oklahoma and Tennessee — are SEC programs, as is projected No. 2 seed Alabama.
Florida’s overall strength of schedule is now No. 83, and its non-conference strength of schedule is No. 77. The Gators only have one “quality win” (against the top 50 in BPI) on record, beating North Carolina, but that number should increase as the SEC schedule progresses.
ESPN gives Florida 1.3% odds of winning the NCAA Tournament and 3.6% odds of making it to the championship game. A Final Four appearance (8.7%) or Elite Eight appearance (20.6%) continue to see increased odds, as do the chances of a Sweet 16 (44.0%) and Round of 32 appearance (78.4%).
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