It took both sides pointing at each other to be the first to make the announcement and not appear to be the instigator, but it is finally official:
Sergio Perez will not be racing for Red Bull in 2025.
To have written such a sentence after the Miami Grand Prix back in May would have been pretty surprising, even at a time when Perez didn’t have a contract in place beyond the end of this year. But to do so when he was given another two years with Red Bull just a few weeks later borders on an astounding demise.
Let’s not forget, Perez was good at the start of this season. Sure, last year he only just managed to finish as runner-up to Max Verstappen in one of the most dominant seasons ever seen, but “only just” is still enough when you can do no better than finish one-two in the drivers’ championship and dominate the constructors’ standings.
Then he kicked off 2024 with a similar level of performance, sometimes struggling to be close to his immensely talented teammate, but at others pushing him remarkably hard. Qualifying at Suzuka stands out as such a moment, where Perez was just 0.066s away from beating Verstappen to pole position on a track the Dutchman loves, and excels at.
Perhaps that was the lap that convinced Red Bull to stick with Perez for the next two seasons, expecting stability to be key at a time when the team was rocking off-track. It certainly wasn’t alone in prioritizing a set line-up across both 2025 and 2026 due to the change in regulations.
Perez also finished a comfortable second to Verstappen at Suzuka to secure Red Bull’s third one-two finish in the first four races. You could argue that run would have been extended in China but for the timing of an early Virtual Safety Car that allowed Lando Norris to push Perez down to third place.
Even in Miami, fourth was a solid enough result when the Safety Car had played a role in Norris jumping into the lead. It was all going so well on-track.
It was at this point that Red Bull opted to extend Perez’s contract. He was told he would be staying upon the return to Europe, and it might have been uninspiring at the time because fans wanted to see Verstappen challenged more, but it had been working for Red Bull.
Had been.
Even now, it’s a real struggle to understand how the drop-off could be so great. Perez never finished in the top five again after Miami, and only once would he come close, when he crashed out in Baku fighting Carlos Sainz for the final podium spot.
A haul of 49 points from 18 races – plus four Sprints – is a disastrous return. Pierre Gasly picked up all 42 of his season’s points in the same spell, and he only had six prior to the summer break as the Alpine was not competitive until the final quarter of the season.
And yes, the Red Bull was not as competitive as it had been at the start of the year, but it was still good enough for Verstappen to pick up five wins and score 301 points in those same 18 race weekends.
Perez had to go, both for Red Bull’s own good and for his own, because something suddenly, dramatically, was not working.
But the focus has to be on the team now. Hiring Perez back at the end of 2020 was a move that meant no more excuses for the second car alongside Verstappen. An experienced driver – who had picked up multiple podiums and even a remarkable race win for midfield runners Force India/Racing Point – was replacing the often-inexperienced juniors that Red Bull had been promoting.
Gasly and Alex Albon have both subsequently showed their abilities in teams outside the Red Bull sphere, and proven that they were perhaps fast-tracked too soon into a front-running seat. Or, more likely, not provided an environment in which they could succeed. The common denominator is not a single driver, it’s that seat.
And that’s where Red Bull’s next move seems all the more wrong.
Aside from the fact it passed up on bringing back a driver who it had developed through its junior programs and was by far the best option on the market in the summer – Carlos Sainz – it also then turned down the chance to run the last driver who had been truly successful alongside Verstappen in the form of Daniel Ricciardo. Understandable based on Ricciardo’s indifferent form, but even in early August all of the signs were that Perez was going to be replaced.
The u-turn in the summer break caught many in the paddock out – including myself – but it must be said that hindsight is what makes it look such a bad call. While there was certainly no guarantee it would go well for Ricciardo, could it have gone any worse?
Instead of making a change back then, now Red Bull is going to follow its old approach of fast-tracking a driver into a position where they are more likely to fail than succeed. That’s not a slight on Liam Lawson’s abilities, but on the environment he’s going into based on the experiences of all the drivers before him.
Lawson’s good, but he still has plenty to learn in F1 and he’d be well-served leading the RB team for a season next year – his first full season in the sport, don’t forget.
Yuki Tsunoda, on the other hand, can afford to be gambled with. He’s done his time at RB, beaten all of his team-mates in recent years, and is definitely fast. The only question remaining is can he perform in a top team. If he were to be promoted and then struggle, it would answer that and still leave Red Bull with Lawson developing close behind him. If he were to shine, then what a bonus.
But Red Bull appears not to have learned from its own errors in the past. The finger of blame always points to the driver, but Gasly, Albon and now Perez have now all failed to deliver to their potential – albeit clearly below Verstappen to varying degrees – and the team is reverting to a very similar situation as the first two faced.
Lawson might buck the trend, but history is very much against him.
In trying to understand how it ended up losing so much so spectacularly – in terms of both money and results – from Perez, Red Bull would be well-served to look at the run of drivers it has felt compelled to replace and realize that the constant is the team and the way it operates.