Coming off a loss to the Detroit Lions, the Indianapolis Colts are clinging to their playoff hopes at 5-7 on the season and find themselves in what is essentially a must-win game against the New England Patriots.
At 3-9, the Patriots have obviously had their own struggles this season, but rookie quarterback Drake Maye has provided the team with some long-term optimism with his play–although there are still some ups and downs that he’s navigating like any young player.
The Colts have played New England in each of the last three seasons, but as we all know, every year brings a different team. So, let’s take a closer look at the 2024 Patriots and who the Colts will be up against.
Last week: Patriots lose to Miami, 15-34
The Dolphins controlled this game through the air. While they only mustered 65 rushing yards against the New England defensive front, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was 29-for-40 passing for 317 yards with four touchdowns, picking apart the secondary.
New England’s offense would be held scoreless for the first three quarters of the game, falling behind 31-0 at one point. Maye was 22-for-37 passing for 222 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
As has been the case for much of the year, he was pressured heavily by the opponent and with Miami putting up 24 quick points in the second quarter, the Patriots were forced to become one-dimensional and pass-heavy for much of the game.
Quarterback play
The stat line or the final score isn’t always going to reflect it with rookie Drake Maye, but his overall play this season has been encouraging, showcasing some playmaking abilities.
On the year, Maye has completed 65.5 percent of his throws for 1,458 yards (6.5 YPA) with 10 touchdowns to seven interceptions.
Making things more difficult for the rookie is that there can be a lot on his plate. The offensive line has struggled often in pass protection and there isn’t always a strong run game to lean on. Couple that with a defense that ranks in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring, and Maye has frequently been tasked with playing from predictable passing situations.
Line of scrimmage
As alluded to, many of the Patriots issues on offense starts up front. The run game is averaging a modest 4.4 yards per rush, ranking around league average, while in pass protection, this unit ranks last by ESPN’s pass-blocking efficiency metric and 27th in pressure rate surrendered.
On the other side of the ball, the front is the strength of this defense. The Patriots will enter this game ranked 12th in yards per rush allowed and 10th in pass rush win rate. Going after the secondary is where the opportunity lies for the Colts’ offense.
Turnovers
At minus-seven, the Patriots have one of the worst turnover differentials in football. Maye has thrown seven of the team’s eight interceptions–which ranks 13th in the NFL–and the Patriots have also fumbled the ball away eight times as well.
A lack of takeaways from the defense is what’s really hurting the Patriots overall differential. The nine takeaways on the season is the third-fewest in all of football.
Injury report
It was a long first injury report for the Patriots on Wednesday. For more on the Colts’ initial injury report, click here.
Patriots injury report
LIMITED PARTICIPATION⁰DT Christian Barmore, Not Injury Related – Other⁰WR DeMario Douglas, Ankle⁰S Kyle Dugger, Ankle⁰DT Daniel Ekuale, Elbow⁰LB Christian Elliss, Knee⁰LB Anfernee Jennings, Knee⁰T Vederian Lowe, Shoulder⁰S Jabrill Peppers, Knee⁰DT…
— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) November 27, 2024
Stats to know
I recently put together a stats comparison between these two teams, taking a closer look at how the Colts and Patriots stack up in several key metrics. For more on that, click here.
Players to know
TE Hunter Henry: In terms of targets, receptions and yards, Henry is the Patriots leading receiver this season, with 535 receiving yards and he’s been a reliable target catching 75 percent of his passes.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson: New England’s leading rusher is Stevenson with 598 yards on the ground, although he is averaging just 3.7 yards per rush.
DE Keion White: White has been the most disruptive member of the New England front, totaling 38 pressures on the season–the next closest is 22–along with six sacks, which is also a team high.
CB Christian Gonzalez: On the season, Gonzalez is allowing a completion rate of just 57 percent and has a team-high five pass breakups along with one interception. His passer rating when targeted is just 78.4.