Happy Thanksgiving! It’s always a special holiday for Detroit Lions fans, but this year is even more grand.
As I drink the morning coffee on this Lions gameday, the Lions are owners of the best record in the NFL. Okay, technically the Kansas City Chiefs are also 10-1, but the Lions are the current holders of the No. 32 spot on the NFL’s waiver wire.
Dan Campbell’s Lions are the best team in the league entering Week 13. They’ve won nine games in a row thanks to a balance between the No. 1 scoring offense and No. 2 scoring defense in the NFL.
It’s been a long time since the Lions won on Thanksgiving. The Chicago Bears, today’s opponent, are responsible for ruining the day for the Lions in three of those seven consecutive losses. Will the Lions exact some revenge on the day where Detroit is the rare focal point of the NFL?
Why I think the Lions will win
Defense.
Okay, I probably need to say more than one word. But everything good about this matchup rests upon Aaron Glenn’s banged-up but still incredibly effective defensive unit.
The Lions defense is playing some great team football lately. The cohesion and communication between the line, the backers and the secondary has been outstanding, no matter the personnel on hand. Glenn has found the sweet spot for his impact players, namely DT Alim McNeill and safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph.
All three are poised for big games in this one, most notably McNeill. He’s been on a tear as a pass rusher on the interior, and in this matchup, McNeill draws a subpar G-C-G package from the Bears. They’re not bad players individually, but the combination of Teven Jenkins, Matt Pryor and Coleman Shelton plays with little chemistry or coordination.
The biggest matchup advantage for the Lions in this game comes from their big guys on defense, and that also includes DJ Reader, Josh Paschal, Levi Onwuzurike and Za’Darius Smith. Power wins against the Bears. Talented power dominates.
The object of Detroit’s aggression is rookie QB Caleb Williams. The latest in a long line of Bears quarterback solutions has, at times, shown why he was the No. 1 overall pick in April’s draft in Detroit. Williams has also proven his vociferous critics correct (so far, anyway) with erratic decisions, an inability to consistently win in the structure of the offense, and a maddening propensity to hold the ball way too long.
Getting Terrion Arnold back will help the Lions man coverage on the outside, though not having Carlton Davis will hurt. The opportunism of Joseph and Branch at safety, playing behind a pass rush that should be effective and a run defense that should stymie old friend D’Andre Swift, makes it tough to see the Bears scoring much without some help from more injuries, officiating or just a collective off day from too many Lions. Branch got his out of his system last week, and I expect a big rebound game here.
Moreover, Chicago is just not a well-coached offense. The Windy City airwaves and blogosphere are crowded with calls for coach Matt Eberflus’ head. They’ve already fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, but the heat is still on thanks to a scheme that doesn’t necessarily play to the strength of their top talents. Clock management, playcalling decisions, frigid starts to games–they’re all still major issues for the Bears.
On the opposite side of the ball, the Lions should be able to run early and often against the Bears defensive front. Chicago has some very legit talent upfront, but their spacing and attack-at-all-times scheme leaves them vulnerable against disciplined offenses that don’t get discouraged from running the ball on 2nd-and-10 or 3rd-and-7. The Lions run offense with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, running behind a well-heeled line, has no such problems.
Then there’s the coaching. Eberflus is on the hot seat. Campbell should be getting more mention than he is for NFL Coach of the Year, and all three coordinators–Glenn, OC Ben Johnson and special teams coach Dave Fipp–are at or near the top of their respective positions. The Lions coaching staff is a well-oiled machine. The Bears staff is leaking oil above some smoldering kindling.
Don’t think for a second the Lions coaches don’t know how long it’s been since this team won on this day. Chicago might be an inferior opponent statistically and record-wise, but ending the Thanksgiving losing will mean something to them. So will beating a division opponent.
What concerns me about the Bears
Much of what concerns me about the Bears relates more to the Lions and the rampant injuries across the roster. If Detroit was at full strength, I would expect them to win by 20-plus points.
Alas, this is not even close to the full complement of talent for Detroit. Left tackle Taylor Decker is out, as is starting outside CB Carlton Davis. Losing Decker is huge because the fundamental tenet of Chicago’s defense is being able to pressure the quarterback by only rushing four. The dropoff from Decker to the next OT in line–be it Dan Skipper or practice squad elevation Jamarco Jones–is significant.
Moving Penei Sewell from the right side to the left shores up the left side, but the Bears defense typically aligns their best pass rusher, Montez Sweat, against the right tackle. Much of the Lion’s run blocking is based around Sewell’s seek-and-destroy mobility and power from the right side, too. Either way, Decker is a major loss against the Bears.
Davis’ absence on defense pushes Kindle Vildor, Khalil Dorsey and Emmanuel Moseley two spots higher up the depth chart. Remember, just last Thursday Detroit had rookie Ennis Rakestraw as CB4. Now he and Davis are out. The Lions depth CBs are tasked with controlling a very good 1-2-3 WR combination in DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen. The safeties and LBs can’t help too much because TE Cole Kmet is a very good receiver, as is Swift at RB out of the backfield. Caleb Williams’ running and improvisational ability demands their attention, too. Chicago’s offense might be erratic and poorly coached, but they do have the ability to make some plays.
Back to the Bears defense. Goff has struggled against them; 43-for-70, 393 yards, 3 TDs and 5 INTs in two games last year. Much like the Buccaneers in Detroit’s only loss this year, the Bears are really good at getting quick pressure by rushing just four, and simultaneously crowding the middle of the field. That’s where Goff attacks at his best and the Bears are really good at taking it away. They too have opportunistic defenders; eight different Bears have INTs and 10 have forced fumbles on the season. Factor in Graham Glasgow’s recent struggles at left guard and Decker’s absence to his outside flank, and the Bears D could be a real problem for Goff and the Lions. Especially if Ben Johnson gets impatient and too intricate with his play calls and designs–as happened against the Buccaneers back in Week 2…
Final score prediction
I think the Lions have enough talent to survive what figures to be a spirited challenge from a Bears team that just might have a death-gasp game in them. Lions win, 20-17, on a Jake Bates field goal on Detroit’s final drive.