The following statistic tells an accurate story for those in search of a glimpse at Wisconsin football’s current state of affairs under head coach Luke Fickell: the Badgers are 0-and-9 against teams ranked higher than No. 50 in ESPN FPI since the start of 2023.
Looking a year-end FPI numbers from 2023 and the updated rankings entering the final week of 2024, the Badgers’ best win was against Rutgers (No. 50) last season. Otherwise, Wisconsin has lost every game against a team inside FPI’s top 50.
Those losses include the following:
- 2023: Iowa (No. 46), Ohio State (No. 3), LSU (No. 10)
- 2024: Alabama (No. 4), USC (No. 18), Penn State (No. 9), Iowa (No. 20), Oregon (No. 7), Nebraska (No. 44)
Fickell was hired to not only win those matchups but elevate the Badgers toward the top tier of the Big Ten. Obviously, that has yet to come to fruition.
That reality sets up the Badgers’ upcoming rivalry matchup against Minnesota. The Gophers enter 6-5 on the season and 4-4 in Big Ten play. Their quality is better than the record suggests — FPI currently ranks the team No. 33 in the nation.
That ranking can be attributed to narrow losses to North Carolina, Michigan and top-ranked Penn State, plus statement wins over USC and Illinois. The Gophers are a few bounces of the football away from 9-2 and long-shot College Football Playoff contention.
Of note, Wisconsin has not beaten a team close to the quality of the 2024 Gophers, according to FPI, during the Fickell era. That reality creates an opportunity for a defining victory, but it also paints a negative light on the team’s chances. That 0-for-9 mark against top-50 teams is a significant trend that doesn’t come as some large fluke.
The Badgers need a win to clinch bowl eligibility for the 23rd consecutive season. Maybe most importantly, they need a win to show some life under the no-longer-new regime.
Wisconsin and Minnesota will kick off at noon ET, 11 a.m. CT on Friday afternoon.
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