One of the biggest college football rivalry games in the nation is set to take place this Saturday in Tallahassee, where the Florida Gators will go head-to-head with the Florida State Seminoles in a series that dates back to 1958.
The Orange and Blue have seen a late-season surge that clinched a bowl berth last weekend after beating the then-ninth-ranked Ole Miss Rebels in the Swamp. This followed a top-25 upset of the LSU Tigers team inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium as well.
The Garnet and Gold, however, have had a fall to forget, winning just two games with a brutal nine losses to go with them. Mike Norvell’s team has plummeted precipitously from their undefeated regular-season campaign in 2023.
Ahead of the 68th meeting between the two schools on the collegiate gridiron, ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his SP+ predictions for the rivalry matchup. His computer model favors Florida by 12.6 points over Florida State with a 79% win probability and a projected final score of 31-19.
Compare that with the initial spread for the game (Florida, -14.5 points) for a difference of 1.9 between the two.
Billy Napier and Co. sit at No. 28 out of 134 FBS schools (10.2 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into the last game of the regular season, while the visiting squad is 85th in the nation (-4.9).
About SP+ predictions
“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.
“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”
How to watch UF-FSU
The Gators will face the Seminoles inside Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 30. The game will kick off at 7 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN 2.
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