The Auburn Tigers (4-6) will hope to further create some momentum going into the Iron Bowl as they try to keep their postseason hopes alive against Texas A&M (8-2) at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday.
Auburn is its fourth win of the season against UL Monroe last week. Hugh Freeze’s squad is now two wins away from a postseason birth, although both of those wins will have to come against College Football Playoff hopeful SEC teams. The first of those Playoff hopefuls, Texas A&M, is looking to earn a road victory on the Plains that could put the Aggies back into the 12-team Playoff field next Tuesday.
Auburn may be having a much more difficult 2024 than the Aggies, but the Tigers enter Saturday’s showdown as just 2.5-point underdogs according to BetMGM. ESPN FPI also sees this game as a toss up, as the Hugh Freeze’s Tigers enter Saturday with a 42.3% chance to pull of the upset according to the Football Power Index.
Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show the Auburn has an even stronger chance to earn a win than the experts believe? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.
Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne played his best game as a Tiger last week against UL Monroe. The senior threw for 286 yards and a career-high 5 touchdowns in the victory. Over the six starts, the former Michigan State Spartan has thrown for just over 230 yards per game, 11 touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions. He hasn’t been flashy, but Thorne has quietly become a very consistent quarterback in Hugh Freeze’s offense.
On the other side, Texas A&M freshman Marcel Reed has been sensational since relieving incumbent starter Conner Weigman of his duties early in the season. The Nashville, TN native has brought harmony to the Aggies offense, composing his way to 1,504 total yards and 15 total touchdowns in just eight games, five of which he has started. The young quarterback may be much less experienced than Thorne and most of the signal callers in the conference, but his ability to get his team into the end zone multiple times per game with his arm and his legs gives him the edge over Thorne on Saturday.
The offensive skill position margin is close as well. Texas A&M star running back Le’Veon Moss may have been the best overall player in this game had he not suffered a season-ending knee injury earlier this month, but the Aggies still have plenty to offer on the offensive side of the ball. Backup running back Amari Daniels has doesn’t have the “big play” ability of Moss, but the junior has quietly ran for 5.9 yards per carry and 7 touchdowns this season. The Aggies pass catching trio of Noah Thomas (390 yards), Jabre Barber (281 yards), and Cyrus Allen (269 yards) may not have the statistics of Auburn’s pass catching quartet, but that may be more due to the fact the Aggies have not felt the need to throw the football in many games this season.
Auburn on the other hand has needed to air it out, and the numbers of KeAndre Lambert-Smith (761 yards), Malcolm Simmons (412 yards), Cam Coleman (392 yards), and Rivaldo Fairweather (297 yards) reflect that. If you add in the production of running back Jarquez Hunter (1,015 yards), Auburn’s skill position weapons have highly out-produced the Aggies skill players. The talent gap is not nearly as wide as the numbers suggest, but the pure production is too lopsided to not give Auburn the edge in this category.
On the defensive side, things are about as close to even as you can get. Both squads have held the opposition to well under 20 points per game this season, while showing improvement as the year has rolled along. The Aggies have created nearly double (14) the turnovers Auburn (8) has, but Auburn has sacked the quarterback 23 times, compared to A&M’s 21. Keldric Faulk and Jalen McLeod are the best two pass rushers in this contest, while A&M has the best defensive back in sophomore cornerback Marcus Ratcliffe. Factor in Auburn’s home-field advantage, and the battle is too murky to give either unit the edge entering Saturday.
After taking a look at the tale of the tape, this game seems about as close as the experts believe it will be. If Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne can play a solid and clean football game, the Tigers may be able to keep their postseason hopes alive, while eliminating the Aggies from Playoff contention in the process.
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