The Green Bay Packers can put themselves on the verge of securing a playoff spot and severely damage the San Francisco 49ers’ chances of making the postseason with a win over the 49ers on Sunday at Lambeau Field.
Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus tracks playoff chances and the “leverage” of individual games every week.
In Week 12, the Packers can improve their playoff chances to over 90 percent while knocking the 49ers down near 15 percent with a win in the playoff rematch on Sunday — making the game one of the most important in the NFC postseason chase this week.
If the Packers can beat the 49ers, the Super Bowl hangover would be more real than ever pic.twitter.com/OaHultePet
— Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) November 19, 2024
The Packers are 7-3 and currently in possession of the No. 6 seed in the NFC. The 49ers are 5-5, trailing the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West and in the No. 10 spot in the NFC playoff field.
The 49ers are already 1-3 in the NFC West — with a loss at home to the Cardinals — and 3-4 overall in the conference. A fifth conference loss — especially to a team ahead of them in the wildcard standings — would be devastating.
With a win, the Packers could improve to 8-3 and ensure they have at least a two-win lead over any team currently behind them in the postseason standings. A loss would drop the Packers’ playoff chances under 60 percent while elevating the 49ers’ chances to over 50 percent, per Riske’s projection.
The other hugely important game in the NFC playoff race this week is Cardinals vs. Seahawks. A win from the Cardinals would put Arizona’s playoff chances just under 80 percent, but a loss would drop them below 40.
The NFC playoff race could actually gain a lot of clarity this week.
If the Packers, Cardinals and Commanders all win, the top seven teams in the conference would all have playoff chances above 70 percent going into Week 13 — including five (Packers, Commanders, Vikings, Lions, Eagles) above 90 percent.
NFC playoff standings
1. Detroit Lions: 9-1, face Indianapolis Colts in Week 12
2. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-2, face Los Angeles Rams in Week 12
3. Arizona Cardinals: 6-4, face Seattle Seahawks in Week 12
4. Atlanta Falcons: 6-5, bye week
5. Minnesota Vikings: 8-2, face Chicago Bears in Week 12
6. Green Bay Packers: 7-3, face San Francisco 49ers in Week 12
7. Washington Commanders: 7-4, face Dallas Cowboys in Week 12
8. Los Angeles Rams: 5-5, face Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12
9. Seattle Seahawks: 5-5, face Arizona Cardinals in Week 12
10. San Francisco 49ers: 5-5, face Green Bay Packers in Week 12
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-6, face New York Giants in Week 12
12. Chicago Bears: 4-6, face Minnesota Vikings in Week 12