Penn State will play one final road game this regular season before closing out the season at home, and a chance to host a first-round College Football Playoff game is coming into view. Of the two final games of the regular season, the more challenging of the two continues to appear to be this week’s road game at Minnesota. But as the game has finally arrived, it seems the trends for this week’s Big Ten road trip are swinging back in Penn State’s favor at just the right time.
ESPN’s win probability figures are giving Penn State a 75.1% chance of coming home with a win against the Gophers this week. That figure is notable because the projected win probability for Penn State in this particular matchup had been decreasing on a weekly basis since the start of October.
On October 1, Penn State’s win probability was calculated at 77.9% according to ESPN’s computers. That figures dropped to 74.2% the following week, then to 72.1% the following week, and eventually down to 68.1% after Penn State lost to Ohio State.
Penn State was always viewed as the favorite according to ESPN’s calculations, but the trends were going against the Nittany Lions and favoring the Gophers. This was largely because Minnesota was stringing together some solid wins and the home-field advantage was playing a factor. But Minnesota lost its last game against Rutgers before heading into the bye week, and Penn State has dominated each of its last two opponents after losing to the Buckeyes.
Penn State opened as a nearly two-touchdown favorite this week against the Gophers. A win would put Penn State at 10-1 with one final game at home against Maryland to play. Penn State is currently in a great spot to host a first-round College Football Playoff game, and a win against Minnesota would potentially go a long way to securing a first-round playoff game in Beaver Stadium in December.
So there is a lot on the line for Penn State this weekend, even if a spot in the Big Tne championship game may be just out of reach.
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