The newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff format is proving tricky to navigate, even for the CFP committee, with surprising placements and unexpected shifts in the rankings.
This year, the playoff will seed the top four-ranked conference champions as automatic 1-4 seeds with a bye, followed by at least one additional conference champ and up to seven at-large bids. ESPN’s “BCS-style” predictor—using the old BCS ranking formula for comparison—has been a decent gauge of committee rankings over the years, but things look a lot different in the new CFP setup, resulting in some unexpected spots.
Clemson football sit at No. 20 in the CFP rankings, but the ESPN model would place them at 16th, a noticeable bump from their current playoff position. Conversely, Miami, currently at 9th in the CFP, would only be at No. 12 under the BCS-style rankings. While four and three-spot differences might not seem like much, it is a massive differential considering what’s at stake.
Bill Connelly from ESPN analyzed the implications of the Miami-Clemson dynamic. Even with the Hurricanes’ recent upset loss, Miami still holds the highest odds of reaching the ACC Championship, likely facing SMU or Clemson if they make it. Connelly noted that Miami’s playoff hopes remain, even with a significant odds drop following the loss. They now have just under a 50% chance of reaching the ACC title game, compared to a strong 30-point lead over SMU in the title odds just a week prior.
Clemson’s playoff picture, however, is complicated by the CFP’s tiebreaker rules. Both Miami and SMU hold the advantage over Clemson in conference tiebreakers because they defeated Louisville earlier in the season—a team Clemson struggled against. With the “record against common opponents” tiebreaker hurting Clemson, the Tigers need Miami to stumble again or for SMU to drop two games, potentially opening a path for Clemson to grab a spot in the ACC Championship.
Looking ahead, the Tigers’ postseason fate hangs on how the final stretch of the season unfolds. Miami still faces a tough road game at Syracuse, while SMU has three remaining matchups that could shake up the standings.
There’s a lot at stake for Clemson fans, but they’ll need some help from others to make it to the playoffs.
If they do make it, the Tigers will have a real chance to shock many.