Change might be needed in Houston.
One year after Bobby Slowik was anointed as the next great offensive coordinator and rising head coaching candidate, the Houston Texans’ second-year play-caller stands firmly in the crossfire.
Tensions have been building among fans for weeks, but it erupted to a point of no return following Sunday’s meltdown against the Detroit Lions. Houston failed to score in the second half, squandering a 23-7 lead in an eventual 26-23 loss.
In was expected to be a juggernaut, Houston’s offense looks like one of the league’s most disappointing units.
Is wasting one of DeMeco Ryans’ defense’s best performances ever enough to trigger a shakeup for the offensive staff?
Don’t know how you can wake up tomorrow and feel good about the direction of that unit and C.J. Stroud’s development after this loss #HTownMade
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) November 11, 2024
Following Sunday, the Texans rank 16th in EPA per pass at -0.04 and 23rd in passing efficiency at 41.1% despite being headlined by 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud.
They rank 28th in EPA per carry at -0.31 and 31st in rushing success rate at a measly 34.2% despite the surge of Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon as the leading rusher.
Stroud’s sophomore season is approaching ‘slump’ territory under Slowik’s watch. The Ohio State product has regressed in completion percentage, passer rating, EPA per drop back and success rating.
Not only has Stroud struggled, he’s been sacked 34 times this season, only four fewer than reigning No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams.
The offensive line has factored into the failure — including regression from highly-paid members such as Laremy Tunsil and Shaq Mason —but Slowik sits core responsible for the unit he is in charge of coaching and coordinating on game day.
There’s no doubt that Slowik had a phenomenal debut in 2023. The former San Francisco 49ers assistant brought the core principles of the Kyle Shanahan scheme alongside detail-oriented, focused gameplans built around protecting and insulating his rookie quarterback.
The team flourished with game plans built around low-efficiency runs and max protection passes with long-developing route concepts. Texans Wire even named Slowik one of the 15 Most Impactful Texans of 2023.
Houston was able to find both explosive gains and play to the strength of their gritty defense as needed in 2023 with this formula. Stroud had firm guardrails to perform within and, combined with his talent, the team saw immediate explosive output and it was a huge part of their success last season.
It’s a factor as to why the Texans swung big in trades to land Pro Bowl wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Mixon to accelerate an offense that already had the proverbial ‘engine’ needed for greatness.
Slowik’s second act in 2024 was expected to be one of evolution. Initially, the concept was built for a budding franchise star to facilitate as a point guard-esque distributor for a stacked supporting cast.
Instead, everything has sputtered.
Houston’s offense hasn’t evolved beyond the primary tenants many expected from San Francisco. What’s even worse is that it hasn’t established any unique identity of its own despite these unique talents available on offense.
The Texans remain a run-first offense that’s willing to accept an inefficient running game and, in that inefficiency, have become rather dependent on heroics from Stroud to bail them out.
These conservative tendencies have played a factor in the persona that is Houston’s happy being in games with top competitors rather than one that expects to win.
Confusing finishes against the Green Bay Packers and even electing for a long field goal against Detroit highlights a game plan built like a franchise without a premier quarterback.
What happens when a team is unable to pivot away from their structural inefficiencies?
What occurs when it’s unable to highlight its unique offensive talents or retain a large portion of its former identity?
Unfortunately, regression.
A year of film study has allowed teams to target their game plans toward Slowik’s tendencies and how Houston wants to win games. Whether that is predicting early-down runs or exploiting bad protection rules across a weak offensive line, teams have had far more success against the Texans offense and Stroud in 2024.
Slowik’s inability to evolve any of these components against the better-prepared competition is even further testimony to a unit that is struggling to adapt.
Double mug look from the Packers defense goes as poorly as you’d expect for Houston’s protection, even with Ogunbowale in to help.
Can’t be too upset with this one, fantastic call from Green Bay DC Jeff Hafley #HTownMade pic.twitter.com/4Twuy7nsix
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) October 22, 2024
The Texans now feature an offense unable to structurally sound off on any singular thing worth merit. Their running game is inefficient. They’re unable to protect Stroud. The passing game often finds themselves in grossly unfavorable positions.
All of this is seemingly fueled by an offensive coordinator who doesn’t appear to have a direction for what this offense’s second act should be.
That doesn’t mean the situation is hopeless. The Texans should improve with the return of receiver Nico Collins, who led the NFL in receiving yards when placed on injured reserve last month. He provides an easy answer in the quick game, explosive plays vertically and consistency on screens functions as an extension of the run.
Still, it won’t fix the core issue that Slowik’s offense has encountered at this juncture: A lack of identity with minimal schematic diversity.
It’s for that reason that it’s time for Houston to consider a change at the top of their offensive coaching staff.
Quarterback coach Jerrod Johnson interviewed with several NFL teams for their offensive coordinator openings before ultimately electing to return to Houston. Coveted around the league, it was assumed that Johnson preferred to take the mantle in Houston following the 2024 season once Slowik departed for a potential head coaching position.
Johnson, a former quarterback, has experience under Minnesota Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell and former Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich. He’s also worked with Stroud since he was in high school and has served as his position coach in team meetings ever since he arrived in the building.
Coordinator changes are almost always driven by desperation. Unfair or not, Houston is in a desperate position now sitting at 6-4 with an apparent inability to compete with top contenders dwindling.
However, few teams have such a well-regarded and well-prepared candidate in-house.
In a season with Super Bowl aspirations, it’s time for the Texans to take their chances with their once-considered heir apparent at offensive coordinator. Johnson’s background and quarterback-centric approach could not only galvanize the locker room but stimulate more aggressive and more talent-friendly game plans for Houston’s offense.
Across the sidelines, Detroit once faced an uphill climb at offensive coordinator early in Dan Campbell’s tenure. He eventually elected to promote tight ends coach Ben Johnson as the new play-caller after the in-season demotion of offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn.
The rest has been history as Johnson remains the most sought-after candidate to take over a franchise for the second consecutive offseason.
The Lions real ascension began when Ben Johnson took over play calling in week 9 of 2021
— Seth Payne (@SethCPayne) November 1, 2024
It’s not ideal, but the Texans’ offense is approaching a point of desperation. Texans coach Demeco Ryans should consider whether he’s willing to endure another loss when his defense forces five interceptions.
The front office needs to consider if they’re willing to let an expensive 2024 offense go to waste on principal.
Sometimes, change is necessary. Fans soon will see if the Texans feel the same way.