Here’s what SP+ predicts for the Florida-LSU matchup in Week 12

Here is what ESPN’s SP+ predictions foresees this weekend inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

The Florida Gators return to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium this weekend to host the LSU Tigers for a good old-fashioned Southeastern Conference rivalry game as the end of the regular season quickly nears.

The Orange and Blue are just 4-5 this fall with an even weaker 2-4 mark against fellow league schools while the Purple and Gold are 6-3 overall (3-2 in SEC play) while holding onto the No. 22 spot in the US LBM Coaches Poll. However, LSU has been in a bit of a decline in recent weeks, dropping a pair to the Texas A&M Aggies and Alabama Crimson Tide, respectively.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his SP+ predictions for college football’s Week 12 slate, which favors the Tigers by 6.1 points over the Gators while giving LSU a 65% chance of winning and a projected final score of 33-27. Compare that with the initial spread for the game (LSU, -4.5 points) for a difference of 1.6 between the two.

Billy Napier and Co. sit at No. 39 out of 134 FBS schools (6.9 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into Saturday’s home game, while the visiting squad is 15th in the nation (15.5).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

How to watch Gators-Tigers

The Gators host the Tigers in college football’s Week 12 on Saturday, Nov. 16. The SEC matchup will kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ABC.

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