Auburn football will be heavily motivated when it returns to action on Nov. 16.
The Tigers, who enter this weekend with a 3-6 record, will need to win all three of its final games to earn bowl eligibility. Can they get the job done? ESPN analytics has taken a crack at forecasting the results of Auburn’s final stretch of games.
According to ESPN’s football power index, Auburn has a 3.9% chance to win every game over the next three weeks, which ranks No. 10 among SEC programs. Auburn, however, has a higher “win-out” percentage than LSU, Oklahoma, Florida, and Vanderbilt.
Breaking it down further, ESPN forecasts Auburn to win its next game over the ULM Warhawks, but fails to give the Tigers an advantage over its final two SEC foes, No. 16 Texas A&M and No. 11 Alabama.
Auburn has been given a 91.9% chance to beat ULM on Nov. 16 at Jordan-Hare Stadium to close out its nonconference slate. After starting 5-1, the Warhawks have dropped two straight games to South Alabama and Marshall and are projected to lose Saturday’s game to Texas State.
After facing ULM, Auburn will meet No. 16 Texas A&M at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Aggies have a 61.7% chance to beat Auburn on Nov. 23 according to ESPN but the game could be a much closer affair. Texas A&M recently lost a 44-20 game to South Carolina on the road. With the game being at Jordan-Hare, Auburn has a chance to upset the Aggies and gain momentum heading into the Iron Bowl.
Finally, Auburn has a less-than-ten percent chance to upset No. 11 Alabama at Nick Saban Field on Nov. 30. ESPN gives Alabama a 90.4% chance to beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl, which would extend its streak to seven straight wins over the Tigers on their home field. Alabama has the SEC’s best chance of winning out according to the FPI with 39.6% and is favored in its final four games, which include games at No. 13 LSU and Oklahoma.
If ESPN’s predictions come true, Auburn will finish the season with a losing record for the fourth straight season at 4-8. Of course, these projections are merely for entertainment purposes and in no way solidify the results of the next three games.
However, if the necessary win total does not bounce Auburn’s way, the Tigers should take a step forward in 2025 thanks to its No. 5 recruiting class.
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