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Real Madrid (2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss) welcomes AC Milan (1-0-2) to the Santiago Bernebeu for a UEFA Champions League battle Tuesday. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET (TNT Sports/discovery+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s soccer odds around the Real Madrid vs. AC Milan odds, and make our best soccer bets, picks and predictions.
Real Madrid sits second in La Liga, the top league in Spain. It has been an ultra-strong side at home, having a 5-0-1 record in league matches. Through 11 matches, it has a +10 goal differential. Real is coming off an embarrassing 4-0 loss to rival Barcelona on Oct. 26.
In Champions League action, Madrid beat Borussia Dortmund 5-2 and Stuttgart 3-1 while also having a 1-0 road loss to Lille. It is led by F Kylian Mbappe, who has scored 6 goals in La Liga action.
AC Milan has had a disappointing season in Serie A, the top league in Italy, sitting seventh. It has struggled on the road and is just 2-1-2. Throughout all league matches, Milan has a +6 goal differential on the season. It is led by F Christian Pulisic, who has a team-high 8 combined goals and assists.
In Champions League competition, AC Milan has its lone win in a 3-1 victory over Club Brugge and has losses to Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 and Liverpool 3-1.
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Real Madrid vs. AC Milan odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of soccer odds. Lines last updated at 12:16 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Real Madrid -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | AC Milan +550 (bet $100 to win $550) | Draw +380 (bet $100 to win $380)
- Over/Under: 3.5 (O: +110 | U: -150)
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Real Madrid vs. AC Milan picks and predictions
Prediction
Real Madrid 3, AC Milan 1
Moneyline (ML)
PASS.
There’s just no value here. From top to bottom, especially on the backline, Real is the better side, but they aren’t worth almost double your money for a unit of potential return. Unfortunately, they haven’t played well enough to warrant this size of a spread, especially coming off a throttling by Barcelona.
Nonetheless, AC Milan has struggled as well, especially against quality opponents in the Champions League, so one should assume those issues will continue. Ultimately, avoid a moneyline play.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET OVER 3.5 (+110).
Real has a strong defense, but they have given up 7 goals in their last 3 times taking the pitch. Madrid has allowed at least 1 goal in 8 of its last 9 matches as well. At the same time, its offense has been clicking, scoring 9 goals in its last 4 games. It has gone Over this total in 2 of 3 Champions League matches.
AC Milan has also gone Over this total in 2 of 3 Champions League matches, and against a quality offense like Liverpool, it gave up a trio of goals and allowed 3.1 expected goals. The expected goals are more concerning and suggest ample opportunities were there for Liverpool in that match. Against Leverkusen, it allowed 1.8 expected goals. AC Milan is averaging 1.7 goals per game in Serie A play and 1.3 goals per game in Champions league action.
Considering the trends for both sides, back OVER 3.5 (+115).
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