The Green Bay Packers are 6-2, entering a pivotal midseason showdown with the Detroit Lions and are just one week away from getting a chance to heal up during the Week 10 bye.
So, where do the Packers stand as contenders at this point in the 2024 season?
It’s tough to know, to be honest. A ton of different factors have combined to create a somewhat messy first half of the season, and it’s a credit to Matt LaFleur and his team for navigating their way to a 6-2 start.
The Packers lost in Brazil on a slippery field, played two games without starting quarterback Jordan Love, lost a division game at home in Love’s first game back from injury and have since ripped off four straight wins, although Love is now dealing with a new groin injury.
Backup quarterback Malik Willis — who was acquired in late August as a Hail Mary attempt to solve the No. 2 quarterback problem — has been a revelation, and his contributions have directly influenced three different wins. The Packers also made a midseason change at kicker after rookie Brayden Narveson led the NFL in misses through six games. Veteran Brandon McManus hasn’t missed in the last two games, seemingly solving the problem.
The schedule has been favorable, and it’s about to get tougher.
After returning from Brazil, the Packers beat the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans in back-to-back games with Malik Willis at quarterback, but the Colts just benched their struggling starting quarterback and the Titans look like one of the worst teams in football.
In Week 4, the Packers trailed 28-0 before failing to complete a comeback against the Vikings at Lambeau Field.
Over the last four games, the Packers beat the Los Angeles Rams without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the Arizona Cardinals at Lambeau Field, the Houston Texans without Nico Collins and five starters on defense and the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road after Doug Pederson’s team was in London for two weeks. Not exactly a gauntlet stretch.
No team apologizes for wins. You just play who is on your schedule, and injury situations are what they are — unpredictable and out of anyone’s control.
The underlying metrics look good. The Packers rank sixth in points per game and yards per play on offense, and 11th in points allowed per game and 16th in yards allowed per play on defense. Their turnover margin is plus-seven, thanks in large part to a defense that ranks first in takeaways. By DVOA, the Packers are eighth overall — fifth on offense and 12th on defense.
Soon, the Packers will get opportunities to prove their contender status. And the first opportunity arrives Sunday when the Detroit Lions — who have won five straight games and look like arguably the best team in football right now — come to Lambeau Field. After the bye, the Packers go to Chicago, host the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins in a span of five days and then go to Detroit for a rematch with the Lions in primetime. LaFleur’s team also plays five more division games over the final nine.
There is a universe (or two or three) in the multiverse where the Packers beat the Lions on Sunday, go into the bye with tremendous momentum, get Love healthy coming out of the bye and embark on a hot streak similar to the end of the 2023 season.
But there are plenty more where the Packers lose Sunday, are 6-3 with two home division losses at the bye and have to battle through a gauntlet in the second half to make the postseason as a wildcard team.
Jeff Hafley’s defense will be tested to a much great degree during the second half of the season. Eight of the nine games are against teams currently ranked in the top 17 for scoring this season.
Love will be challenged to stay on the field and avoid turnovers. He’s exited two games and missed two other games with injuries, and he’s still thrown a league-high nine interceptions.
No one in Green Bay thinks the Packers have played their best football. That’s an encouraging sign, because LaFleur’s team has found ways to win games without their best stuff, and it suggests the Packers can beat just about anyone if they do eventually hit cruising altitude.
In many ways, the 2024 season has mirrored the 2023 season in terms of performance. There have been penalties, mistakes, turnovers, missed opportunities all along the way. This is still a young team developing and learning. But this year? The Packers are finding ways to win. They are 6-2 after eight games. Last year they were 3-5 and heading to 3-6 after nine games. It’s a sign of maturity.
The challenge will be igniting another second-half run. This team is certainly capable, especially if Love gets healthy, Hafley’s defense remains in attack mode and the veteran kicker keeps converting the easy points. The Packers have left plenty of meat on the bone, especially in the passing game, so it would not be surprising if suddenly the offense takes off in a big way here soon.
The first step in the journey is Sunday. The Lions are good, and they know it. They have all the characteristics of a true contender. The Packers do too, but they haven’t shown it nearly as consistently as the Lions. Sunday’s showdown isn’t just an opportunity to take the lead in the NFC North, but a chance for the Packers to create real belief and confidence about a second-half surge against a tougher schedule.
The Packers could be real contenders. We don’t know it yet, but we will soon.