SP+ prediction for Florida vs. Georgia in college football’s Week 10

The biggest game of the Florida Gators’ college football schedule — regardless of the season’s expectations — for over the last 100 years has been against their rivals to the north, the Georgia Bulldogs.

The matchup has been played almost exclusively on neutral ground in Jacksonville and will once again take place inside EverBank Stadium this Saturday. Dubbed the unofficial World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, this series rarely fails to deliver on excitement.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his predictions for college football’s Week 10 slate on Sunday, which favor the ‘Dawgs by 12.5 points over the Gators while giving Georgia a 78% chance of winning and a projected final score of 34-22. Compare that with the spread for the game (UGA, -16.5 points) for a difference of 4.0 from the betting lines.

🎆 WEEK 9 SP+ PICKS 🎇

BSU 38, SDSU 17
Ohio St 25, Penn St 24
Miami 36, Duke 18
Rebs 34, Hogs 19
Army 41, AFA 10
Oregon 32, Mich 19
Dawgs 34, Gators 22
Iowa St 35, Tex Tech 21
A&M 28, S Caro 22
Clemson 33, Louisville 25
Vols 32, UK 15
SMU 30, Pitt 25https://t.co/6VdDpRfl2U pic.twitter.com/MMWEr0e7iA

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 27, 2024

Billy Napier and Co. sit at No. 21 out of 134 FBS schools (13.0 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into Saturday’s rivalry game while Kirby Smart’s squad is sixth (25.6 overall rating).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”