You won’t find many Week 8 matchups more important than this one for the Indianapolis Colts as they take on the Houston Texans in a game with massive implications in the AFC South race.
With kickoff nearing, let’s not waste any time and let’s dive into five big things to know about.
A game with major implications in the AFC South division race
Even after today’s game is complete, there will still be nine games left on the Colts schedule. However, when it comes to the AFC South division race, this matchup with Houston is about as close to a must-win as a team can have at this stage of the season.
A loss, and not only do the Colts fall to 4-4 while Houston improves to 6-2, but Indianapolis will also be 0-2 against the Texans this season and just 1-3 in the AFC South.
On the flip side, a win and both teams are 5-3, along with having split the season series. The Colts will then be 2-2 in the division and the Texans 2-1.
A loss this week will be very difficult to overcome.
The Colts run defense needs to hold up
In Week 1, Texans running back Joe Mixon rushed for 159 yards and the Houston offense as a unit totaled 213 yards on the ground. Averaging over 5.0 yards per carry, Mixon did whatever he wanted with the ball and helped the Houston offense control the game.
When an offense is able to find that kind of success running the ball, they stay ahead of the sticks and out of predictable situations, putting the defense at a disadvantage as they now have to defend both the run and pass on a given play and really the entire field at that point.
The defensive front will also wear down and an effective run game can help the offense control the time of possession battle–a key element in close games.
Colts’ offense can’t rely solely on the big play
Explosive plays are great. Oftentimes they lead to points and the Colts have been one of the best at generating them this season. However, as we saw Week 1, that can’t be an offense’s only method for moving the ball.
The result of that is a lot of short possessions that end with punts. Houston would hold the ball for 40 minutes the first time these teams met compared to just 20 minutes for the Colts. This resulted in a massive discrepancy in the number of plays ran with the Texan offense on the field for 76 plays the Colts only 43.
Contributing to this was the Colts’ inability to stop Mixon and their struggles to consistently pick up first downs on offense. In this rematch, getting the run game going will certainly help, with Jonathan Taylor averaging only 3.0 yards per carry in Week 1.
But an important key will be Anthony Richardson and the passing game having to be better on the short to intermediate throws to help sustain drives. Having Josh Downs available this time will be a big help in this regard as well.
A heavyweight matchup in the trenches
The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in pass protection and the Texans have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. Whichever unit can win this matchup will give their team the potential upper hand in the game.
By PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency metric, the Colts rank second this season. Combined, Richardson and Flacco have been pressured at the third-lowest rate this season. On the flip side, led by Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, Houston ranks fourth in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate, they are 10th in pressure rate and fourth in sacks.
Success for the Colts offense begins here. Getting the run game going will help, but on those passing plays, providing Richardson with time so he can throw in rhythm and within the structure of the play call will be a must.
The impact of Buckner and Taylor
Both sides of the ball for the Colts are getting massive boosts in this game with the return of DeForest Buckner and Jonathan Taylor.
Having Buckner back in the mix will provide both the pass rush and the run defense with some needed help. Taylor, meanwhile, will provide a spark to the run game, which if that element can get going, will help open up the passing game for the Colts as well.
There is the obvious impact that both these players can make, but Buckner and Taylor are force-multipliers. Their presence makes everyone around them better through the attention that they will draw, opening up opportunities for their teammates.