ESPN gave Duke more than a 90% chance to beat SMU with three seconds left

ESPN didn’t quite think Duke’s game against SMU was over with three seconds left, but it was pretty close.

Football games are exactly 60 minutes long for good reason, but for 59 minutes and 57 seconds on Saturday night, the Duke Blue Devils looked like they’d added a ranked victory to their resume.

With three seconds left on the clock, head coach Manny Diaz and the Blue Devils appeared to have No. 22 SMU on the ropes. After a third consecutive turnover from Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings, Duke had the ball at the 13-yard line in a tie game with one play left in regulation.

Despite kicker Todd Pelino missing an extra point and a field goal earlier in the game, ESPN’s win probability tracker gave the Blue Devils a 90.6% chance to walk away with a win. More than nine times out of 10, everything goes to plan, and the students in Durham celebrate once again.

Instead, SMU defensive end Jahfari Harvey lept over the Duke offensive line and got his hand up in the air, blocking Pelino’s winning effort and forcing the game into overtime. And, well, Blue Devils fans know the rest.