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The Indianapolis Colts (4-3) and Houston Texans (5-2) meet in Week 8 Sunday. Kickoff from NRG Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Colts vs. Texans odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions..
The Colts secured their 4th win in 5 games, defeating the Miami Dolphins 16-10 Oct. 20. They covered as 3-point home favorites, with the Under (44) hitting. QB Anthony Richardson returned from a 3-game hip injury, but showed rust, completing just 10 of 24 passes. However, he led the team in rushing with 56 yards. K Matt Gay was reliable, hitting all 3 of his field-goal attempts in the victory.
The Texans had their 3-game win streak snapped in a close 24-22 loss to the Green Bay Packers Oct. 20. Despite the defeat, they covered as 3-point road underdogs, and the Under (47.5) cashed. QB C.J. Stroud struggled, posting his worst performance of his professional career with only 10 completions on 21 attempts for 86 yards. However, RB Joe Mixon stepped up, carrying the load with 115 rushing yards and 2 TDs.
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Colts at Texans odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated at 12 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Colts +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Texans -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Colts +5 (-115) | Texans -5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Colts at Texans key injuries
Colts
- DE Genard Avery (foot) out
- DT DeForest Buckner (ankle) questionable
- LB Jaylon Carlies (fibula/shoulder) out
- LB Cameron McGrone (elbow) questionable
Texans
- LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) out
- LB Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) questionable
- S Jimmie Ward (groin) out
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Colts at Texans picks and predictions
Prediction
Texans 27, Colts 17
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no doubt in my mind that the Texans (-250) win and cover Sunday. So, I’ll take my wager to the spread.
Against the spread
BET TEXANS -5 (-105).
The Texans edged out the Colts in their Week 1 matchup, winning 29-27. Despite the close score, Houston outgained Indianapolis by 114 yards and controlled the ball nearly twice as long. Richardson relied on 2 long TD passes to stay competitive, but his performance has declined since, with just 48.8% of his passes completed, along with 1 TD and 5 INTs.
After a narrow 24-22 loss to the Packers, the Texans remain in control of the AFC South. A victory this weekend would provide a critical tiebreaker against the Colts. At home, they hold a 10-3 record, averaging an 11-point win margin. Considering the Colts’ struggles against the run, I anticipate the Texans winning by at least a TD.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 45.5 (-110).
The 1st meeting between the Texans and Colts ended with 56 total points, largely due to 2 quick TDs from Richardson. However, I don’t expect Houston to allow Richardson to attack downfield, and I anticipate a run-heavy approach against a Colts defense that struggles against the run, allowing 159.9 rushing yards per game (31st in NFL). This should lead to a big day for Mixon.
In their 3 losses, the Colts have surrendered an average of 200 rushing yards, compared to just 129.8 in their 4 wins. I expect the Texans to win, resulting in longer drives and more time coming off the clock. Historically, these 2 teams don’t produce high scores, with their last 10 meetings averaging 44.7 points and 7 of those games finishing Under. The total has gone Under in every Texans home game this season, so I’m backing UNDER 45.5 (-110).
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