Pat’s POV: Projecting the 12-team CFP field halfway through the season

Which 12 teams would make the playoff if they started today? CSW tries to answer that question.

We have reached the halfway point of the 2024 college football season and we are that much closer to the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. The contenders and pretenders are starting to separate from the pack with some dark horse teams picking up steam.

There is just one undefeated team left in the SEC and they can solidify themselves as top dog this coming weekend. The Texas Longhorns improved to 6-0 after vanquishing their bitter rivals the Oklahoma Sooners 34-3 at the Cotton Bowl. Now it’s all about the Georgia Bulldogs in a top-five showdown in Austin, Texas.

In the Big Ten, the Oregon Ducks and Penn State Nittany Lions kept pace in close victories. The Ducks went back and forth with the Ohio State Buckeyes while the Nittany Lions needed a second-half comeback against the USC Trojans. Two teams in the top three could be on a collision course in the Big Ten title game, however, Penn State has to knock off Ohio State to get there.

The remaining conferences in the Power Four have multiple teams vying for a spot in the top four. The Clemson Tigers are the clear top team in the ACC once again with five straight wins and a perfect 4-0 record in conference play. The Miami Hurricanes are poised to make a run at the Tigers while a pair of surprises are also in the hunt at 2-0. Keep your eyes on the Pittsburgh Panthers and SMU Mustangs. There isn’t a lot of separation but these are the teams that have the best chance.

The Big 12 might have the biggest surprises with the BYU Cougars, Iowa State Cyclones, and Texas Tech Red Raiders all perfect in conference play. Each team is 3-0 through seven weeks of football. Arizona State, Kansas State, Colorado, Cincinnati, and West Virginia are all in the running at 2-1.

With that being said, here is how we view the 12-team College Football Playoff through the first half of the season.

Top Four Seeds

  • No. 1: Texas Longhorns
  • No. 2:  Oregon Ducks
  • No. 3: Clemson Tigers
  • No. 4: BYU Cougars

If the playoffs started today, these are the likely top-four teams. It will likely change in the coming weeks.

No. 5: Georgia Bulldogs vs No. 12: Boise State Broncos

This would be a tough draw in the first round for Boise State but watching running back Ashton Jeanty against the Georgia defense would be worth the price of admission. The winner would move on to play the BYU Cougars.

No. 6: Penn State Nittany Lions vs No. 11: Iowa State Cyclones

Despite Penn State being undefeated, we have the Ducks just ahead of them based on who they beat this past Saturday. This would be a strong matchup between a tough Cyclones defense against Drew Allar and the Penn State offense. The winner would move on to play the Clemson Tigers.

No. 7: Ohio State Buckeyes vs No. 10: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Ohio State becomes the third Big Ten team in the annual playoff with a showdown against the Fighting Irish, who they played last season. It was a tightly contested game but this year the Irish might have quite the time trying to slow down freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith. Which transfer quarterback would have the better game between Riley Leonard and Will Howard? The winner would move on to play the Oregon Ducks.

No. 8: LSU Tigers vs No. 9: Miami Hurricanes

The LSU Tigers jumped into the conversation after defeating the Ole Miss Rebels in overtime, handing them their second loss in SEC play. Despite the Miami Hurricanes having a spotless record, they have looked anything but impressive since the beginning of ACC play. The Canes can make a statement in Week 8 when they travel to Louisville.

Just Missed The Cut

The Alabama Crimson Tide sit in the top 10 of the coaches poll but after knocking off Georgia they have lost to Vanderbilt and struggled to put away South Carolina. On Saturday they face a Tennessee Vols team that finds themselves in the same predicament. They barely beat Florida this past Saturday after losing to Arkansas the prior weekend. Third Saturday should answer questions about both of these teams.