Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs odds, picks and predictions

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The Pittsburgh Penguins (1-1-0) meet the Toronto Maple Leafs (1-1-0) at Scotiabank Arena Saturday. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (NHL Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Penguins vs. Maple Leafs odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting; Maple Leafs won 2-1 in 2023-24

The Penguins were drummed 6-0 at home by the New York Rangers Wednesday, while rebounding for a 6-3 win in Detroit Thursday behind backup netminder Joel Blomqvist. Anthony Beauvillier netted 2 goals, while Erik Karlsson was good for a goal and an assist.

Evgeni Malkin picked up 2 assists in Thursday’s game, giving him 800 for his career. He is 1 of 3 players in the NHL with at least 800 helpers in his career, joining teammate Sidney Crosby and Patrick Kane. He is also the 3rd player in franchise history to hit the mark, joining Crosby and Mario Lemieux.

Anthony Stolarz was in net in the opener at Montreal, falling 1-0 despite making 26 saves. He only allowed a single power-play goal in place of the injured Joseph Woll (lower body). Dennis Hildeby started in Thursday’s game at New Jersey, and he made 22 saves in the 4-2 win in his NHL debut.

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Penguins at Maple Leafs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NHL odds. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Penguins +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Maple Leafs -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Penguins +1.5 (-150) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+125)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Penguins at Maple Leafs projected goalies

Tristan Jarry (0-1-0, 6.00 GAA, .850 SV%) vs. Anthony Stolarz (0-1-0, 1.05 GAA, .963 SV%)

Jarry allowed 6 goals on 40 shots in Wednesday’s 6-0 setback in the regular-season opener at home against the Rangers. He allowed 5 even-strength goals, and a shorthanded goal, in the loss.

Stolarz was a surprise starter Wednesday in Montreal. He was a backup to Sergei Bobrovsky in Florida last season. He made 26 saves on 27 shots, with just a power-play goal allowed to Cole Caufield, in a 1-0 loss to the Canadiens.

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Penguins at Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Prediction

Maple Leafs 4, Penguins 2

Moneyline

The Maple Leafs (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s just a little too much risk for not nearly enough reward.

While the home team cashed in all 3 meetings last season, 2 of the 3 battles were by a single goal, including a Leafs win in OT on April 8. And, the underdog is 6-3 in the past 9 meetings in this series since Oct. 23, 2021, so be careful.

PASS.

Puck line/Against the spread

Despite the trends, which might point to the underdog, especially on the puck line, the MAPLE LEAFS -1.5 (+125) are a better play at plus-money.

Toronto has the firepower on offense, and that was on display against New Jersey last time out. Max Pacioretty scored the 1st goal of the season for the team, while Bobby McMann, Steven Lorentz and John Tavares also etched their names onto the scoresheet. And, that’s only one of the big dogs. It might be a sign of how deep this Toronto offense can be in 2024-25.

Over/Under

UNDER 6.5 (-110) is the lean, but consider a half-unit play at the most.

The total has gone low in both games for the Leafs so far, while the Over is 1-0-1 in the 2 outings for the Pens so far.

However, the series trends point to an Under play, as the total has gone low at a 6-1-1 clip in the past 8 meetings dating back to Nov. 20, 2021.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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