Here’s what SP+ predicts for Florida at Tennessee in Week 7

The Southeastern Conference schedule picks back up for Florida football in Week 7 as the Gators travel to Knoxville to take on the Tennessee Volunteers in what was once a thrilling SEC rivalry.

The Orange and Blue defended its home turf from the invading UCF Knights last weekend to give the team a 3-2 overall record, plus the 1-1 mark it had already amassed prior. The Vols lost their first game of the season at the Arkansas Razorbacks, but have still managed to remain in the top 10 of the US LBM Coaches Poll with a 4-1 overall mark and an identical 1-1 tally in SEC play.

Looking ahead, ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his SP+ predictions for the upcoming slate of games, which favor the home team with a 76% chance of victory by a margin of 11.2 points. The computer model projects a final score of 34-23.

Compare that with the spread for the game (UT, -15.5 points) for a difference of 4.3 from the betting lines.

🫡😤 WEEK 7 SP+ PICKS 😱😼

Ohio State 29, Oregon 26
Texas 33, OU 19
Ole Miss 34, LSU 28
PSU 33, USC 24
Utah 28, Ari St 22
Vols 34, Gators 23
BYU 30, Arizona 26
Iowa St 29, WVU 26
K-State 34, Colorado 25

It's Football Every Day time!https://t.co/w7ALlZmRqT pic.twitter.com/TesaEVmxwU

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 6, 2024

Napier and Co. sit at No. 23 out of 134 FBS schools (14.2 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into Saturday’s affair while the Vols are eighth (22.9 overall rating).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”