The Auburn Tigers (2-3) head on the road for the first time this season to square off against their toughest opponent yet, the Georgia Bulldogs (3-1) this Saturday.
Both SEC squads are coming off losses, albeit in different fashion, a week ago. Auburn’s extremely disappointing start to the season continued with another afternoon of blown opportunities during a home loss to Oklahoma, while Georgia nearly completed a stunning comeback against rival Alabama before 17-year-old Ryan Williams sent “T-Town” into a frenzy with a game winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
Georgia’s loss was no doubt disheartening for Kirby Smart and his staff, but the Bulldogs clearly remain one of the top teams in the country. Auburn’s season meanwhile is in a full “torpedo” under Hugh Freeze in his second season at the helm, and hopes of even qualifying for a bowl game are on the brink.
The different direction of these two long-time SEC rivals, along with Georgia hosting Auburn on Saturday, have many experts giving the Tigers little-to-no chance on pulling off an upset in week five. BetMGM has the home team listed as 23.5-point favorites against Auburn, while ESPN”s Football Power Index doesn’t see Auburn opening October by putting a scare in Georgia either, as UGA has a 91.2% chance to take home the victory according to FPI.
Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Auburn has a better chance to shock the college football world than believe? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.
Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne likely earned back his starting role for the remainder of the season after a solid 350 all-purpose-yard showing against Oklahoma last week. Unfortunately, turnovers have plagued Thorne in what has otherwise been an above-average, statistically productive season. In three starts and parts of two other games, Thorne has thrown for 1,038 yards and rushed for 125 more. The senior has 12 total touchdowns, but his 6 interceptions have left a real sour note on what has otherwise been a decent campaign.
On the other side, Georgia signal-caller Carson Beck comes into this contest with 1,119 passing yards and 10 passing touchdowns over 4 games. The senior has already thrown half of the interceptions (3) he did all of last season (6), but is otherwise on pace to at least finish with around the same impressive statistical marks he managed a year ago. While Beck has yet to find his groove in 2024, his track record in the SEC gives him the easy edge over Payton Thorne.
The skill position battle on the offensive side of the ball actually goes in favor of the Tigers. Auburn running back Jarquez Hunter is fantastic, and his 6.7 yards per carry this season is easily the best among any backs in this game. However, Bulldogs tail-back Trevor Etienne is nearly just as talented, and while the junior hasn’t been given as many opportunities as Hunter, he still averages 5.9 yards per attempt. Georgia’s pass catching trio of Arian Smith, Dominic Lovett, and Dillon Bell is also very talented, but has not outproduced the trio of KeAndre Lambert Smith (415 yards) Malcolm Simmons (214 yards) and Cam Coleman (212 yards) this season. Auburn’s skill players have a slight edge in this contest, although that edge could be nullified if Payton Thorne struggles to get his playmakers the football,
On the defensive side, Georgia is far and away the better unit, and it’s not very close at all. Auburn’s defense is not the same as it was a year ago when the Tigers nearly took down UGA at Jordan-Hare. The inexperience in the Auburn secondary has reared its head throughout the young season, while the defensive front seven, which was supposed to be the strength of DJ Durkin’s corps, has yet to make a significant impact.
Georgia on the other hand had not allowed an opponent to find the end zone before giving up 41 points to Alabama a week ago. The high-scoring game was more of an outlier than the norm, and it would not surprise anyone if the Bulldogs were able to hold Auburn without a touchdown on Saturday.
After taking a look at the tale of the tape, Auburn does have some glimmers of hope in this game, but a total mismatch on the defensive side of the ball makes it fairly clear Georgia should run away with a “get right” victory in week five, especially at home.
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