The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are going exactly as predicted.
Who didn’t have two non-championship-eligible drivers winning two of the first four races? Who didn’t see Denny Hamlin and the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team struggling to finish inside the top 10 on what now seems like a weekly basis? And who didn’t see Alex Bowman leading the competition in stage points earned?
Yes, precisely as predicted.
Chris Buescher and Ross Chastain have thus far been the spoilers of the postseason. As two drivers who had to fight the hardest to get into the postseason and came up empty, it’s fitting they’ve won races.
It’s well known by now how close Buescher, who had the fourth-best average finish in the regular season, came to victory lane in the regular-season. He will forever be on the highlight reel at Darlington Raceway and Kansas Speedway.
Chastain, who made a Championship 4 appearance two years ago and then won the 2023 finale, finally looked like that driver and team Sunday at Kansas Speedway. It was a weekend of normalcy for the No. 1 team in a season of struggles and a summer of bleeding away points.
The first round, of course, delivered drama with its superspeedway wildcard (Atlanta) and road course unpredictability (Watkins Glen). Bristol then capped things off with scrappy performances by Chase Briscoe and Daniel Suarez to advance, which happened well behind the whopping Kyle Larson was putting on the field.
“It’s lived up to the hype,” Christoper Bell said of the predictions about the first round being a wildcard.
Bell, however, expected normalcy to return in the second round. In fact, he predicted Kansas Speedway would be a heads-up race, but Sunday threw a few curveballs of its own at the title contenders. And Bell was one of those as he caught the wall a few times while running the high lane.
Hamlin, who fought for his eighth-place finish, was foiled on pit road. It was the worst day of the season for the No. 11 crew, as Hamlin lost multiple positions on multiple pit stops.
“It was just a crappy day on pit road and we didn’t get the finish that we deserved,” Hamlin said. “This is a great opportunity to lock ourselves in, and instead, we’re scraping and clawing to finish in the top 10.”
Hamlin last went to victory lane in April. He has two top-five finishes in the last 10 races, and has led 22 laps in the last five races.
But Hamlin is not the only one scratching his head. Tyler Reddick said after Sunday his team “haven’t been that great” for a month straight. Reddick was irrelevant at Kansas Speedway, where he won last year, and is the style of racetrack where he usually can be counted on as a contender.
“I think it’s the most wildcards we’ve ever had in the playoffs – ever as far as racetracks that we’re just not certain of,” Joey Logano said ahead of the Round of 12. “We talk about Kansas, and there are a lot of crazy things that happen at Kansas, too. When you look at those restarts when you’re four and five-wide, you’re going to tell me that’s a calm situation? That’s the most calm race that we have in the next round? Are you kidding me?
“Watkins Glen was really supposed to be the most predictable race of the three (in the first round). I don’t think we’ve had a playoff schedule that’s looked like this ever before. I absolutely expect more of the same. Like I said, it’s a lot about survival – survive and move on and get to the Round of 8 and figure it out from there.”
Larson cut a tire at Kansas. Chase Elliot had to come from the rear because of an engine issue. Austin Cindric crashed. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano both dealt with loose wheels.
Times are stressful for a playoff contender. There is one, however, who seems to be having less hassle than the others.
Alex Bowman is thriving. Over the last four races, Bowman has earned 53 stage points (earning at least one point in every stage since the playoffs started), which leads all playoff drivers. He’s earned three top-10 finishes and has led 46 laps. Only one driver, Christopher Bell, has a better average finish, 7.5, in the playoffs than Bowman, who sits at 9.5.
“We’ve been OK, for sure,” Bowman said. “We’ve had a little better pace in the playoffs than where we were prior, and it’s made my job a little easier. So, yeah, we’re not perfect by any means, and we’ve got a lot of things we need to improve on. But we’re kind of headed in the right direction right now and doing the right things.”
There is still a lot of racing left to go, and perhaps more twists and turns, or better yet, stress, with Talladega Superspeedway and the Charlotte Roval coming up. Regardless, nothing is going as expected in this postseason and it has been as intriguing as it is a bit surprising to see unfold.