Florida football favored over UCF in SP+ predictions for Week 6

ESPN senior writer Bill Connelly’s SP+ model projects Florida to beat UCF and cover the spread in a high-scoring affair.

Bill Connelly, the SP+ guru and originator at ESPN, posted his model’s Week 6 predictions, and the Florida Gators are favored over the UCF Knights.

Connelly’s model has Florida winning at home by a projected margin of 5.1 points. It also gives the Gators 62% odds to win and projects a final score of 34-29.

The model suggests that Florida will cover the spread (UF, minus-1) with a 4.1 spread differential (projected margin plus official spread). The over-under is set at 59.5, with a differential of 3.2 (projected score of both teams minus O/U).

Napier and Co. sit at No. 30 out of 134 FBS schools (11.3 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into the Week 6 matchup while the Knights are No. 38 (8.7 rating).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a rĂ©sumĂ© ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Up next for the Gators

Florida is back in The Swamp for an in-state matchup against UCF in Week 6. The last time the Gators and Knights faced off came during a transition period for the Orange and Blue and ended in a 29-17 victory for UCF.

The Knights have one of the best rushing attacks in the country, and Florida’s defense is once again a major concern.

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