It’s a beautiful morning as dawn just begins to creep up and the steam from my coffee wakes the body. The light from my laptop is brighter than the slowly rising sun as I write this. It’s Lions football day, as odd as that still seems.
For years, the Lions didn’t get primetime attention. As someone who typically goes to bed around 9:30, that suited me fine. Now that the team is successful and, dare I say, high-profile, it’s a fun new adjustment to earning these nontraditional starting times.
Here’s what’s rattling around my Lions brain about tonight’s Monday Night Football showdown with the unbeaten Seattle Seahawks as I enjoy the morning coffee.
Why I think the Lions will win
The matchup of the Lions rushing offense against the Seahawks dilapidated defensive front should be one Detroit can exploit. Even with Frank Ragnow out, and that definitely hurts the Lions’ run offense, the combination of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should still find some room to run. Montgomery especially should be effective because of his ability to power through the first contact; Seattle’s linebackers and safeties are solid, but they’re not the types who can slow down what Montgomery offers in the B-gaps and certainly not with top DTs Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams out.
Aidan Hutchinson should be able to continue his Defensive Player of the Year front-runner status and impact the Seattle offense. Charles Cross is a good left tackle, but the Seahawks will start Stone Forsythe at right tackle and old friend Laken Tomlinson at left guard. Those are both prime attack points for Hutchinson, and DL coach Terrell Williams has shown he can vary alignments to get No. 97 in favorable matchups. This could be a big night for Levi Onwuzurike and his power-based game on the outside, too. Seattle has been vulnerable to the “heavy” EDGEs who can reset the line against the run.
The ability to win on both sides of the ball on first downs should set up the Lions to capitalize on third downs. Detroit has been very good on third downs on offense (45.2%–4th in the league) and defense (25.8%–3rd). About the only area the Seahawks offense has struggled is on third downs (36.8%–19th) and that’s because they’re not great at running the ball on first downs (3.6 yards per attempt–23rd). As long as LBs Jack Campbell and Alex Anzalone remain sharp against the run, the Lions defense can set up some third-and-longs that give the pass rush some chances to create big plays.
What worries me about the Seahawks
This is a good football team. I know, I know–they’ve played a cakewalk schedule. They’ve also feasted on that schedule, which is exactly what a good team does in playing inferior opponents.
Lesser Seattle teams than this edition have given the Lions fits lately, including last year. They play their own way and tend to dictate how the game flow goes, and that’s been a problem for this Lions coaching staff. These are the exact types of games where Detroit OC Ben Johnson gets away from basics and tries to prove things he doesn’t need to. They’re the types where Lions DC Aaron Glenn winds up being too reactive and doesn’t stick to his guns in man coverage and creative pass rushes. Geno Smith has a way of doing that to opposing teams.
I worry very much that the Lions will miss safety Brian Branch in this one. Seattle has three dangerous wide receivers, and Smith has proven he plays no favorites in getting the ball where it needs to go. Likely Branch replacement Brandon Joseph has struggled with tackling going back to college, and now he gets his primetime baptism with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett?! Suboptimal, to say the least.
Back to the recent success Seattle has had against the Lions for a minute…
I’m a believer that those sorts of things build upon themselves. Success begets success. Smith specifically is a very difficult matchup for the Lions because he’s a lot like Goff–smart, precise, flexible of mind and target–but he’s also capable of running a little if that door opens. He’s got tremendous confidence in his teammates and their ability to overcome challenges and win, and they’ve done it before in Detroit.
Final score prediction
I expect a tightly played, back-and-forth game between two teams that look like they could meet again in late January. The Lions will win if they’re better in the red zone and avoid giving up big plays. Alas, I just don’t feel it playing out that way.
Seahawks 23, Lions 21