New Mexico Lobos vs. New Mexico State Aggies
- Date: Saturday, September 28, 2024
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN+
- Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
- City: Las Cruces, New Mexico
- Venue: Aggie Memorial Stadium
- Odds/Point Spread Aggies (*9.0)
- Total/Over-Under:58
New Mexico Lobos (0-4) are en route to Aggie Memorial Stadium on Saturday for the annual Rio Grande Rivalry in Las Cruces for the 114th time.
New Mexico State opens this matchup as a 9.0-point underdog. The over/under has been set at 58.
The New Mexico Lobos and New Mexico State Aggies are coming off tough losses as they prepare for their highly anticipated Rio Grande Rivalry.
Fresno State outmatched the Lobos in a 38-21 defeat, while the Aggies narrowly lost to Liberty 30-24.
The Lobos defense allowed only 93 rushing yards on 33 attempts, averaging 2.8 yards per carry.
Through the air, they gave up 252 yards on 27 completions out of 34 attempts, with an opponent completion rate of 79.4%.
By the end of the game, New Mexico had run 81 plays for a total of 485 yards.
In the last three games, the Lobos have had great numbers against opponents but need that to translate into more red zone TDs and points in general.
Photo courtesy of New Mexico Football 2024
With both teams looking to rebound, this rivalry showdown is a heated battle that captures the state of New Mexico’s sports faithful each year.
Lobos quarterback Devon Dampier continues to shine as a dual-threat leader, throwing for 338 yards on 33-of-53 passing (62.3%), adding a touchdown and suffering two interceptions.
He contributed 67 rushing yards on the ground on nine carries, showing his ability to keep defenses on edge.
Javen Jacobs also found the end zone with a rushing touchdown and 41 yards, while receiver Luke Wysong hauled in 10 catches for 126 yards in an impressive performance.
Despite their efforts, the Lobos have struggled to balance their offense, highlighted by a glaring need for a game-breaking running back.
New Mexico has compiled six touchdowns through the air and five rushing touchdowns. They have surrendered the ball eight times.
They are averaging 166.5 yards on the ground, 66th in FBS, and 27.5 points per game overall.
The no-brainer for Bronco Mendenhall Lobo’s team is to cut down the penalties with 45 infractions for a whopping 335 yards.
One thing that could help find more balance is an explosive, game-changing running back who could complement quarterback Dylan Dampier and the trio of talented receivers—Luke Wysong, Caleb Medford, and Nic Trujillo.
Photo courtesy of Daily Lobo 2024
Last season, Jacory Merritt, known as “Bill,” broke through the line of scrimmage for significant chunk plays, a dynamic element missing this year.
This really helped with time of possession and keeping their defense from playing so many downs, just moving the chains with first downs.
The stats back up the Lobos’ need for improvement. They’ve accumulated 1,727 yards this season but have only managed 11 touchdowns, turning the ball over eight times.
Establishing a more effective running game for the Lobos could be the key to turning their season around, keeping the three-and-outs to a minimum, and giving their defense more rest for the latter part of the game.
Sophomore Arizona State transfer Javen Jacobs, who averaged 6.4 yards per carry through four games, shows promise.
A former 5A Player of the Year, Jacobs plays at a more exsplosive speed than many of his teammates (IMHO), and with only 17 attempts so far, he’s a player who needs more touches.
His ability to break big plays could help take the pressure off Dampier and create the offensive balance the Lobos desperately need.
Without a more vital running game to complement Dampier and receivers Wysong, Caleb Medford, and Nic Trujillo, the Lobos’ offense has moved the ball but not convert this into touchdowns in the Red Zone.
This has forced their defense to stay on the field too long, leaving them gassed and vulnerable, especially in the second half.
After a historic 10-5 season, NMSU’s 1-3 start has been disappointing. The offense is struggling to produce, averaging just 14.3 points and 211.3 yards per game—among the lowest in the 134-team FBS.
First-year head coach Tony Sanchez announced Monday that Wake Forest transfer Santino Marucci will remain the Aggies’ starting quarterback.
The Aggies’ offense has also struggled to find its rhythm. Quarterback Marucci had a rough outing against Liberty, completing just 48.3% of his passes for 74 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.
He added 32 rushing yards, while Seth McGowan led the team with 50 yards.
Receiver TJ Pride contributed with five catches for 33 yards, but the Aggies failed to generate enough firepower to keep up.
Their defense has struggled mightily, ranking 131st in Division 1 in yards allowed per game (510.5) and giving up an average of 44.8 points per game.
The Aggies, sitting at 1-3, face similar issues. They rank 133rd in total offense, averaging 211.3 yards per game, and have managed only 14.5 points per game.
Photo courtesy of NMSU Football 2024
Defensively, they’ve allowed 835 rushing yards and 125 total points through four games, ranking them 109th in points allowed per game.
Both teams must find answers quickly as the Rio Grande Rivalry heats up.
For New Mexico, the key could lie in unleashing Javen Jacobs, while New Mexico State must find a way to jumpstart their offense and tighten up their defense.
Either way, this matchup promises to be a critical test for two teams eager to prove themselves.
Photo courtesy of NMSU Football 2024
Both teams want to bounce back and turn things around in their next matchups.
Key players in the next game?
Looking ahead to the next game, both the New Mexico Lobos and New Mexico State Aggies will rely heavily on their key players to make an impact:
New Mexico Lobos Key Players:
- Devon Dampier (QB): Dampier is the engine of the Lobos’ offense. His dual-threat ability (1,061 passing yards, 248 rushing yards this season) will be crucial, both through the air and on the ground. If he can limit turnovers, he could be a game-changer.
- Luke Wysong (WR): Wysong leads the Lobos’ receiving group with 407 yards and one touchdown. His playmaking ability and ability to stretch the field will be vital in opening up the offense.
- Eli Sanders (RB): Sanders has accumulated 218 rushing yards this season, and he will need to provide consistent production on the ground to take the pressure off Dampier.
- Caleb Medford, Nic Trujillo, and Javen Jacobs three must get more touches to keep defenses off balance, and they are weapons for the Lobos.
New Mexico State Aggies Key Players:
- Santino Marucci (QB): After a shaky performance in the last game, Marucci will need to improve his accuracy (48.3% completion rate in the previous game) and make smarter decisions with the football to lead the Aggies’ offense.
- Seth McGowan (RB): McGowan, the team’s leading rusher with 260 yards and two touchdowns, will be pivotal in establishing the run game. If he gets going, it will ease the load on Marucci.
- TJ Pride (WR): With 60 receiving yards on the season, Pride will look to step up as a reliable target for Marucci in the passing game. A strong showing from him could help balance the Aggies’ offensive attack.
Both teams will depend on these players to rebound from recent losses and lead their respective squads in their upcoming game.
Game predictions?
Predicting the outcome of the New Mexico Lobos vs. New Mexico State Aggies matchup, based on recent performances and critical players, offers an intriguing scenario:
New Mexico Lobos:
- Strengths: The Lobos’ offense, led by quarterback Devon Dampier, has shown the ability to put up big passing numbers. Dampier’s dual-threat capability can challenge defenses, especially if he gets time to make plays through the air and on the ground. Additionally, Luke Wysong is a consistent and reliable target, making the passing game a serious threat.
- Weaknesses: Turnovers have plagued the Lobos, with Dampier throwing six interceptions this season, including two in the last game. Defensively, they have struggled to slow down potent offenses like Fresno State. Cutting down all the penalties, they have with 45 infractions for 335 yards.
New Mexico State Aggies:
- Strengths: The Aggies’ ground game, spearheaded by Seth McGowan, has been a steady source of production. If Santino Marucci can bounce back from his rough outing and limit mistakes, their offense can stay balanced. The defense has been scrappy, but they’ll need to focus on containing Dampier’s versatility.
- Weaknesses: Marucci’s inconsistency in the passing game (48.3% completion rate last game) has limited the Aggies’ ability to mount sustained drives. The passing game, in general, has been underwhelming, making it easier for opponents to stack the box against the run.
Game Prediction:
Both teams are coming off losses and will be eager to rebound, but the Lobos have shown a more explosive offense with Dampier under center. However, their turnovers and defensive weaknesses keep this game close. The Aggies’ defense could keep them in the game if they can force mistakes, but their offense will need more from Marucci to get over the hump.
Final Prediction:
New Mexico Lobos 31, New Mexico State Aggies 24.
The Lobos’ offense will likely prove too much for the Aggies, although turnovers could make this a tightly contested game. Expect a hard-fought rivalry matchup with the Lobos’ playmakers ultimately making the difference.