Despite an undefeated run through non-conference play that included a road win over a Power Four program, ESPN FPI remains pessimistic about the Duke Blue Devils.
At the conclusion of Week 4, after a 45-17 win over Middle Tennessee, the Blue Devils moved up only six spots to 65th in the country.
The small boost did shift Duke closer to the middle of the ACC, but that stemmed from other failures around the conference more than anything else. The North Carolina Tar Heels dropped 11 spots to 69th after a 70-50 loss to James Madison, and Syracuse slid down nine spots to 68th after a home loss to Stanford.
As of Monday, the Blue Devils are 11th out of 17 ACC teams in ESPN’s rankings.
ESPN Analytics does, however, really like Duke’s chances to make a bowl game. The Blue Devils are projected to win 7.4 games this season, and the math thinks that first-year head coach Manny Diaz has a 90.2% chance to reach the college football postseason.