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The Phoenix Mercury and the Minnesota Lynx meet Sunday for Game 1 of their 1st-round best-of-3 series. Tip-off from Target Center is 5 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s WNBA odds around the Mercury vs. Lynx odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.
Regular-season series: Lynx won 3-1
The Mercury finished 2 games under .500 at 19-21 during the regular season, but that was still good enough for the 7th seed. Phoenix managed a 9-11 record on the road, while going 0-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) is 2 meetings with the Lynx in Minneapolis. The Under cashed in each of those meetings in the Twin Cities, too.
Minnesota has dominated this series in recent years, going 8-2 SU and ATS in the past 10 meetings since 2022.
Phoenix wrapped up the regular season with 2 straight wins and covers on the road. That’s the good news. The bad news is that those victories were against non-playoff teams. The Mercury is just 2-13 SU and a dismal 1-13-1 ATS against playoff teams since June 22.
The Lynx fell 68-61 in the regular-season finale against the LA Sparks, but that was also a game where they rested key players, including star Napheesa Collier. Prior to that, Minnesota had won 6 in a row at home.
Mercury at Lynx odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:49 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mercury +390 (bet $100 to win $390) | Lynx -550 (bet $550 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mercury +9.5 (-105) | Lynx -9.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 158.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mercury at Lynx picks and predictions
Prediction
Lynx 84, Mercury 71
Moneyline
The Lynx (-550) will cost you more than 5 times your potential return. In other words, you must risk more than $10 for every $2 in profit, which is way too much risk for not enough reward.
Over the long haul, that’s a terrible betting strategy, no matter how likely a victory looks.
PASS.
Against the spread
The LYNX -9.5 (-115) is a solid play at home against the Mercury +9.5 (-105) in Game 1. The fact Minnesota scooped up the No. 2 seed in the playoffs isn’t a mistake. This is a very, very good team. Collier and the offense can pile up the points, especially at home.
In 2 home meetings with the Mercury in the regular season, Minnesota won by an average of 18.5 points per game (PPG), with Collier posting 18.5 PPG and 12.5 RPG in those 2 meetings in the Twin Cities. Collier has 3 double-doubles against Phoenix this season, averaging 17.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG and 3.8 APG in 4 regular-season meetings.
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Over/Under
UNDER 158.5 (-105) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
The Over-Under split in 4 regular-season meetings between these teams, including 1-1 in each team’s home game. However, Minnesota has cashed low in 5 of the past 6 home games, while going 6-3 in the past 9 outings to finish up the regular season.
For the Merc, the Over was 3-1 to close out the season, while the Over-Under went 3-3-1 in the final 7 on the road, so there isn’t a lot to glean there.
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