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The Colorado Buffaloes (1-1) and Colorado State Rams (1-1) meet Saturday in Fort Collins. The opening kickoff at Canvas Stadium will be at 7:30 p.m. (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around Colorado vs. Colorado State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Colorado is in the back half of a rivalry fortnight, and the front end did not go well. The Buffaloes dropped a 28-10 decision at Nebraska last Saturday. CU was a minus-2 in turnovers and did not score its lone TD until the 4th quarter when the game was well in hand for the Cornhuskers.
Colorado State lost 52-0 at current No. 3 Texas in Week 1, and then the Rams bounced back with a 38-17 triumph over FCS Northern Colorado last Saturday. In the Week 2 rebound, CSU committed just 1 penalty and cranked out 5.7 yards per rush.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Colorado at Colorado State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 11:01 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Colorado -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Colorado State +220 (bet $100 to win $220)
- Against the spread (ATS): Colorado -7 (-110) | Colorado State +7 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 57.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Colorado at Colorado State picks and predictions
Prediction
Colorado 35, Colorado State 24
Moneyline
Colorado has won 6 in a row against its neighbors to the north. Peg CU as a near-75% win probability in this one.
The favorite price here is not bad, but the best value comes in taking the Buffaloes minus the points. PASS.
Against the spread
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 series meetings. The CSU ATS win in that stretch came a year ago when the Rams (+22.5) took CU to an overtime game (the Buffs prevailed 43-35).
Figure on the Buffaloes coming off a slightly better performance that what showed in their final score against the Cornhuskers. CU was undone by a TD by the Nebraska defense and by a short-field TD drive, both in the 1st quarter. Much of that game was a more flat-footed tussle than what showed on the scoreboard.
From an under-the-hood analytics standpoint, the Buffaloes defense comes out with more of an edge than what shows on the surface. And the Rams have some numbers that give CU a significant edge in the passing game.
Add in the CSU defense being torched so far in attempted red-zone stands, and COLORADO -7 (-110) stands out as an edge play.
Over/Under
This series has a solid Under trend (5 of the last 7 meetings), but the expectations of the Colorado offense are likely tamped down a bit too much.
The lean here is small-to-moderate but its on enough of a scoring spiral, enough big plays, and a decent probability CU closes the door on drives.
Consider a partial-unit play on the OVER 57.5 (-110).
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