It’s safe to say that expectations in Durham aren’t for new Duke football coach [autotag]Manny Diaz[/autotag] to make the College Football Playoff bracket in his first season, even with the field expanded to 12 teams.
However, one popular sports analytics site thinks the Blue Devils aren’t fully out of the race yet.
SportsLine, the CBS Sports affiliate known for its predictive sports models, shared its updated predictions for how likely different programs are to make the 12-team bracket on Monday. While the Blue Devils don’t fit within the top 25 teams on the list, SportsLine thinks Diaz’s team still has an 8.7% chance to make the big dance.
While that’s still too small a percentage to truly embrace, it’s a far cry from ESPN FPI, which thinks there is less than a 3% chance that the Blue Devils win enough games for a playoff berth.
The most surprising part of the SportsLine model is how unsure it seems within the ACC as a whole. Despite two dominant victories for Miami and Louisville to start the season, neither team has more than a 38% chance to reach the postseason. All signs seem to point to the conference only getting one team in the bracket, something that dramatically lowers everyone’s odds.
Best & worst CFP chances after Week 2 📈📉 pic.twitter.com/uNBwHKjIHV
— SportsLine (@SportsLine) September 9, 2024
Seven wins should still be the most Duke football fans realistically ask for this season, but it’s nice to know that national models are a little more bullish on the Blue Devils than expected.