The Sunday morning coffee is a little more vibrant this morning. There’s a welcome chill in the air as summer fades.
It’s Detroit Lions season!
This year promises to be a special one for Lions fans. Dan Campbell’s team is coming off the most successful season of the Super Bowl era, coming within a whisker of the team’s first NFC Championship and Super Bowl appearance.
As the team readies tonight’s opener against the Los Angeles Rams, it’s a more complete roster than the one that beat these Rams for the first-ever playoff win in Ford Field back in January. It’s a team that can win any game against any opponent, anywhere–postseason included. That quest starts tonight in Ford Field in front of what will certainly be a raucous crowd of partisans chanting “Ja-Red Goff” and ready to explode when the Lions take the field.
The first game is always a tough one to break down ahead of time. Teams have changed. These two teams, the Lions and Rams, have changed quite a bit on defense. We’ve also not seen one projected starter from either unit play a single snap in the preseason, adding to the mystery.
Why I think the Lions will win
On paper anyway, this is a game the Lions should win. The Rams have a plethora of new and unproven pieces all over their defense. They just lost their projected top cornerback, Darious Williams, to I.R. They traded away starting linebacker Ernest Jones, a move that was widely unpopular amongst Rams fans and, reportedly, inside the locker room.
Specifically, the lack of coordinated experience and cohesion in the back seven is a very bad matchup for the Rams against Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery; whew, the Lions have some great offensive weaponry. The Rams couldn’t match that when they had Aaron Donald and a more seasoned secondary. Now they’ve got neither.
Detroit’s own defense should be much improved. The overhauled secondary is better equipped to handle the Rams explosive passing attack. The increased physicality that Carlton Davis brings, the increased athleticism Terrion Arnold brings, the increased disruptiveness Amik Robertson offers in the slot, the increased range and deep coverage instincts Brian Branch offers playing full-time safety, it’s all better than it was a year ago.
The Rams remain a very dynamic offense, but they haven’t seen what this Lions unit can do–quite literally; Detroit sitting the starters and playing a relatively vanilla defensive scheme in the preseason means coordinator Aaron Glenn’s unit can present new wrinkles and challenges the Rams don’t even expect to see.
I think the addition of Marcus Davenport as the starting EDGE opposite Aidan Hutchinson deserves more attention. Davenport is straight out of central casting for what Glenn, Campbell and the Lions want playing across from No. 97. Most importantly, he’s healthy. The Rams will be playing without regular starting LT Alaric Jackson, too. Davenport can have a big impact on his new team right away.
What worries me about the Rams
Any team with a veteran quarterback of Matthew Stafford’s accomplishment, with one of the best receiving corps in the league, should never be overlooked. They’re thin up front, but they’re good. These Rams are one of the few offenses that can reasonably expect to match Detroit blow-for-blow.
They lost Aaron Donald on defense, and he cannot be replaced. However, the Rams smartly opted for a different strategy. L.A. has quite a few impressive young talents all along the defensive front. Kobie Turner probably should have been the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year, and I don’t think he was just a product of playing next to Donald. Jared Verse and especially Braden Fiske were very popular Lions draft projections last spring, and for good reason. Don’t sleep on them against a Lions offensive line with a new guard tandem, one of which–right guard Kevin Zeitler–spent more time injured than playing this summer. Graham Glasgow wasn’t exactly looking comfortable in moving to left guard either.
I’m not too concerned about the concept of last year’s left guard, Jonah Jackson, selling out his old team. Jackson has enough to worry about in playing center against Alim McNeill, whom he couldn’t handle in practices when playing his more natural spot at guard. Ben Johnson’s creativity won’t be stifled. I do, however, worry a bit about Johnson trying to show how smart he is rather than trying to win the game, an issue that hurt the Lions at times last year.
It’s hard to know what to expect from the Lions (or Rams) special teams. I’m simultaneously excited to see what Jake Bates can do as a kicker and also terrified at his complete lack of experience and rather uninspiring summer. The Rams kicker, rookie Joshua Karty, is also an unknown in the NFL, but I watched Karty nail game-winners in college in high-pressure situations. The last time Bates had a critical attempt in a meaningful game, he missed. Twice.
Final score prediction
I expect the Rams potent offense will be able to score some points on a talented, new-look Lions defense that hasn’t played together in meaningful action just yet. I expect the Lions offense will be able to score more than that against an inexperienced, lesser-talented Los Angeles defense.
Lions 33, Rams 24