Atlanta Motor Speedway marks the beginning of this year’s NASCAR Cup Series postseason, the 11th edition of the elimination format.
It is the first time the postseason has started with a superspeedway race. As such, the first round is already being described by drivers as a wild card, with the Watkins Glen road course and then the Bristol short track filling out the round.
Ryan Blaney is officially in title defense mode. The Team Penske driver is one of six former champions in the playoff field, alongside Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr. Only Logano has won the crown more than once.
The favorites for the 2024 crown seem clear (Larson, Christopher Bell, William Byron, to name a few), but if the last 10 years have taught us anything, it’s that there will be a driver who makes an unexpectedly deep run. Blaney, for instance, was not among the betting favorites last year, but went on a six-race tear at the end of the season and won the championship.
Speaking of Blaney, he can do something no other champion has done in the elimination era: go back-to-back.
Let the postseason begin. And as it does, here is what you need to know ahead of the next 10 weeks.
The drivers (in reseeded order)
1 – Kyle Larson: 40 playoff points
2 – Christopher Bell: 32 playoff points
3 – Tyler Reddick: 28 playoff points
4 – William Byron: 22 playoff points
5 – Ryan Blaney: 18 playoff points
6 – Denny Hamlin: 15 playoff points
7 – Chase Elliott: 14 playoff points
8 – Brad Keselowski: 8 playoff points
9 – Joey Logano: 7 playoff points
10 – Austin Cindric: 7 playoff points
11 – Daniel Suarez: 6 playoff points
12 – Alex Bowman: 5 playoff points
13 – Chase Briscoe: 5 playoff points
14 – Harrison Burton: 5 playoff points
15 – Martin Truex Jr.: 4 playoff points
16 – Ty Gibbs: 4 playoff points
The cutline
Kyle Larson has a 35-point advantage on the cutline as the first round begins. (12 advance from the 16 drivers who made the postseason). Alex Bowman sits on the bubble but is tied with Chase Briscoe and Harrison Burton, the first two drivers in the elimination zone. Ty Gibbs and Martin Truex Jr. are one point below in the elimination zone.
First-timers
Harrison Burton and Ty Gibbs are in the postseason for the first time. Burton qualified in his third full season in the Cup Series. Gibbs qualifies in his second full season.
The races
1 – Atlanta Motor Speedway (superspeedway)
2 – Watkins Glen (road course)
3 – Bristol Motor Speedway (short track)
4 – Kansas Speedway (intermediate)
5 – Talladega Superspeedway (superspeedway)
6 – Charlotte (road course)
7 – Las Vegas (intermediate)
8 – Homestead-Miami Speedway (intermediate)
9 – Martinsville Speedway (short track)
10 – Phoenix (short track)
Statistical nuggets
18: Playoff appearances for Denny Hamlin (the most of any driver in Cup Series history)
13: Playoff wins for Denny Hamlin (the most of any driver in 2024 playoffs)
12: The seed Ryan Blaney won the championship in 2023. The lowest-seeded driver to win the championship in the elimination era
8: Round of 8 appearances for Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano (the most of any driver in the 2024 playoffs)
5: Championship 4 appearances by Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr. (the most of any driver in the 2024 playoffs)
4: Championship 4 appearances for Denny Hamlin
4: Playoff drivers for Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing
4: The number of times the No. 1 seed has won the Cup Series championship in the elimination era
3: Championship 4 appearances for Chase Elliott
2: Championship 4 appearances for Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski
2: The times the No. 5 and No. 7 seeds have won the Cup Series championship in the elimination era
2: Drivers who have won multiple championships in the elimination era (Kyle Busch; Joey Logano)
1: Championship 4 appearance for Ryan Blaney and William Byron
1: The times the No. 2 seed has won the Cup Series championship in the elimination era
0: Playoff wins for Austin Cindric, Daniel Suarez, Chase Briscoe, Harrison Burton and Ty Gibbs
Outlook
The expectation is that drivers like Larson, Bell, Reddick, Byron, Hamlin, and Blaney will make deep playoff runs. It will simply come down to execution for the top teams. Others like Elliott, Keselowski, and Truex can undoubtedly put themselves in the picture.
But it will be a taller task for drivers with few playoff points. A win, of course, would negate that worry, but when thinking about points and mulligans to fall back on, drivers like Logano and Truex don’t have the playoff points they would want.
Briscoe is giving one last ride for Stewart-Haas Racing, and the emotion and determination that goes with that shouldn’t be overlooked. But it will be a tough fight unless the No. 14 team can start putting together some incredible consistency and win again. Darlington was just his seventh top-10 finish of the season, among the fewest of the playoff drivers.
And then there are the long shots. Daniel Suarez hasn’t shown that he has what it takes to contend consistently against the top teams. Harrison Burton and Wood Brothers Racing are happy to be in the postseason, which will have long-term financial implications for the organization. But neither is expected to make a deep playoff run, let alone find a way to the finale in Phoenix.
The first round could set the tone for the postseason. Atlanta could put drivers in a hole going into Watkins Glen, which is expected to have significant tire falloff that will be a variable for race teams. Tire falloff could also be the storyline at Bristol. Not only will the first cut race be a short track, but Goodyear is bringing the same tire compound to Bristol that was run in the spring, when teams were thrown an unexpected curveball with massive tire wear.
Then, in the second round, we see another superspeedway with Talladega. It would not be surprising if some of the expected contenders are not around by the time the last eight drivers are decided.
Round of 12 prediction: Larson, Bell, Reddick, Byron, Blaney, Hamlin, Elliott, Keselowski, Logano, Bowman, Truex, Gibbs.
Round of 8 prediction: Larson, Bell, Reddick, Byron, Blaney, Hamlin, Elliott, Truex.
Championship 4: Larson, Bell, Reddick, Hamlin.
2024 Cup Series champion: Larson