Popular college basketball analytics site leaves Duke outside top five in talent rating

According to one popular college basketball analytics site, the Duke Blue Devils aren’t one of the five most talented teams in the country.

Each and every member of the Duke basketball fandom has their eyes turned toward the national championship next spring. After all, the school that won the [autotag]Cooper Flagg[/autotag] sweepstakes should expect nothing less.

The presumed No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA draft isn’t the only talented addition for this coming season, however. Three other five-star freshmen joined him in the signing class, including [autotag]Khaman Maluach[/autotag], who just represented South Sudan at the Olympics.

Add in two other four-star freshmen, three high-end transfers, and two returning starters, and the Blue Devils might arguably be the most talented team in the country, right?

Not according to the popular basketball analytics site barttorvik.com. Torvik recently released its 2024-25 preseason projections, and the Blue Devils came in a measly sixth place in the Projected Effective Talent ranking.

Two-time defending national champion Connecticut took the top spot despite losing multiple lottery picks to the NBA. Illinois, Indiana, Virginia, and the dreaded North Carolina Tar Heels also finished above the Blue Devils in order.

To be fair to Torvik, the Blue Devils still finished second in its barthag calculations, which is what decides the site’s national rankings. According to Torvik’s calculations, Jon Scheyer’s squad would have a 95.08% chance of beating an average team, second only to Houston. Duke sits third in the site’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, the only team within the top five in both categories.

Even with that level of Duke appreciation, however, the talent composite score feels head-scratching. After many analysts circled the Blue Devils as the team to beat back in May, there seems to be more and more national doubt centered around the number of freshmen expected to contribute to the 2024-25 season.

Torvik’s formula obviously won’t include such abstract questions, which makes the result even more curious. Yes, four-star sharpshooter Darren Harris likely won’t play much after he underwent surgery to fix a fractured hand, but he shouldn’t be the difference between first or second on the talent ranking and sixth.

Either way, however, the math still seems to believe in the Blue Devils.