The Florida Gators failed the eye test miserably on Saturday with a 41-17 loss in the season opener against the Miami Hurricanes, but a closer look at the numbers reveals where exactly things went wrong.
Of course, all numbers need a bit of context to make sense of. Thus, Gators Wire presents the first installment of a weekly series aimed to explain the data collected by Pro Football Focus.
First, we have to understand how PFF assigns these grades.
The grading scale ranges from -2 to +2 with increments of 0.5, and players are given a grade on every play they are on the field for. A zero grade means a player did his job, while the two ends of the scale represent extreme success or failure — think red zone interception at the end of a game or a game-winning touchdown pass when applying it to quarterbacks.
There’s a level of subjectivity to it, but each grade is reviewed at least once. Once all plus-minus grades are in, the numbers are converted to a 0-100 scale to easily compare players. Some have defined tiers within the system — 90-100 is elite, 85-89 is Pro Bowl level for NFL players, 70 to 84 is a starter and 60-69 is a backup. Anything 59 and below is considered a replaceable talent.
Since we’re talking about college, we will grade on a scale and consider anything above 65.0 as a solid performance.
Overall Breakdown
Florida earned a team grade of 60.7, which is below our 65.0 threshold. In fact, the only areas of the game where the Gators performed above replacement level came in running situations (75.1) on offense and against the run (85.5) on defense.
The Gators struggled the most while passing the ball (37.1), and also performed poorly in coverage (50.7).
Offensive Grades
Only six players ended the Miami game with an offensive grade of 65.0 or higher, and one of them was center Roderick Kearney who played three snaps.
Left tackle Austin Barber led the offensive with a 73.1, followed by running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (70.9), wide receiver Elijhah Badger (69.2) and center Jake Slaughter (68.7) and wide receiver Eugene Wilson III (67.8). Right guard Damieon George Jr. gets an honorable mention at 62.9.
With only six regulars on offense performing well on offense, it’s easy to see why Florida struggled to put points on the board. Notably, quarterback Graham Mertz had the second-worst offensive grade of the day (42.4), and it’s hard to win without good quarterback play.
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Quarterbacks
Graham Mertz dropped back 24 times before leaving the game with a concussion, and things were rough. He faced defensive pressure nine times and was sacked thrice. Another pass was batted down, and Mertz was hit as he threw once. Only one of three turnover-worthy plays resulted in an interception.
The big criticism from fans regarding Mertz is that he isn’t great at letting the ball loose. Pro Football Focus’ passing breakdown backs that up to a degree. Mertz was 6-for-7 within 10 yards and behind the line of scrimmage. He was 0-for-4 on balls thrown deeper than 20 yards, including his lone interception. But Mertz deserves some credit for a decent performance in the mid-range. He went 4-for-6 with an NFL passer rating of 96.5.
The real concern with Mertz should be that he seemed to struggle more when Miami didn’t send a blitzer (34.9) — PFF gave Mertz a 58.7 when facing the blitz. Remember, Mertz is coming back from a collarbone injury and is trying to up his draft stock in his final year of eligibility. He might have been doing too much.
Lagway only dropped back seven times, completing three of six pass attempts — he scrambled on the other. The true freshman didn’t blow anyone away with his 56.6 overall grade and 48.5 grade as a passer, but it became clear rather quickly that he injected some life into the offense. With Mertz going through the concussion protocol this week, Lagway should get some valuable first-team reps, and perhaps his first career start on Saturday.
Receivers
Fourteen of Florida’s 24 targets on Saturday were aimed at either Elijhah Badger or Eugene Wilson III. Badger is the deep threat on the roster, but he struggled to run his routes well beyond 20-plus yards. Working on that post route is a must over the next week, but Badger looked really good between 10-20 yards (85.6 receiving grade), especially outside the numbers (72.6 intermediate left, 85.5 intermediate right).
Wilson hauled in all seven of his receptions within 10 yards of the line scrimmage, with four coming on screen plays. He’s much better running across the middle of the field (89.2 receiving grade), but opposing teams will figure that out quickly. To be the true No. 1 Florida needs him to be, Wilson needs to be running deeper routes, and that’s on the offensive play callers.
A surprise from Saturday was how little Chimere Dike was targeted by his former teammate. The expectation was for Mertz to go to Dike often, but he only targeted him twice on Saturday. Getting the Wisconsin transfer more involved might have helped open things up for the other two starting receivers mentioned above.
Running Backs
Florida’s run game provided the lone bright spot of the day against Miami when Montrell Johnson Jr. ripped a 71-yard run down the left side for a touchdown, but the running backs room didn’t thrive all night. Not by a long shot.
Florida shied away from running the ball toward the right side (more on that in a moment). Eleven of 23 runs went to the left of the center, including all three rushes that went for more than 10 yards, and only one went for negative yardage. There was a bit of success running between the center and right guard (four rushes, 15 yards), but anything toward the right tackle or right end was doomed (four rushes, nine yards).
Johnson led the room with a 76.1 run grade, followed by Mertz (65.1), Lagway (65.0), true freshman Jadan Baugh (63.1) and sophomore Treyaun Webb (62.5). Fumbles aren’t an issue for anyone yet, but pass protection could be better all around.
Offensive Line
Pass Blocking
Somewhat surprisingly, Florida’s offensive line received mostly strong grades in pass protection. Left tackle Austin Barber, center Jake Slaughter and Damieon George Jr. all finished with a grade of 82.4 or higher in pass-blocking situations.
So why did things look so bad whenever Mertz dropped back to throw?
Look no further than the right tackle position to find the culprit(s). There were murmurs that the right side of the line wasn’t set at the end of fall camp, and Billy Napier surprised many by naming Kamryn Waites the starter over San Diego State transfer Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson. Both struggled on Saturday.
Waites earned a 0.0 grade as a pass blocker, which is almost unheard of. It means he was out of place completely, and the guy was on the field for 19 snaps. Crenshaw-Dickson didn’t do much better, finishing the day with a 55.1 grade over 18 snaps.
This kind of play is unacceptable in the SEC, and something has to change quickly. Either someone steps up, or it’s time to give Devon Manuel, who earned a 70.4 over 10 snaps at left tackle.
Sophomore Knijeah Harris also struggled in pass protection at left guard (52.0), but there isn’t as much concern for the first-year starter just yet.
Run Blocking
Barber and Slaughter once again lead the way, performing particularly well in designed gap runs, but no one crossed the 67.0 threshold as a run blocker in Orange and Blue.
It’s good to know that the running backs don’t need elite blocking to get something on the board, but imagine how dangerous Florida’s offense would be if Johnson and Co. did have that kind of support.
Waites was more productive on run plays (58.4) but it’s still a below-average grade. Harris and George both graded out worse than Waites. Manuel’s 53.4 run-blocking grade is also worth mentioning if he’s being considered a replacement option.
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