NTT IndyCar Series championship leader Alex Palou will be crowned if he can push his lead to 55 points by the end of Sunday. If his closest title rival Will Power can overtake Palou by the end of the Milwaukee Hy-Vee 250 doubleheader, a fun fight will move to the season finale at Nashville Speedway where he’ll give everything he has to become IndyCar’s newest title winner.
And while third-place Colton Herta and fourth-place Scott McLaughlin have a remote chance of vaulting past them to earn the championship, the odds favor the top two aces in the drivers’ standings to achieve a rare feat: Across 100-plus years of IndyCar racing, only 12 drivers have won three or more championships, and with Palou and Power, the run from Milwaukee through Nashville is primed to add a new member to the club.
The race for three is officially on, but the odds are by no means equal as with three races to run, Power is short on time to draw down Palou’s lead prior to the final checkered flag of the season that waves in Tennessee on Sept. 15. To start, Palou holds a 54-point lead over Power, which is the equivalent to a maximum race of points in his favor (50 points for a win, one point for pole position, one for leading a lap, and two for leading the most laps).
There are many ways the Team Penske driver can catch and pass the Chip Ganassi Racing standard bearer, which begins by earning an average of 19-20 points more than Palou at each race. Without getting into bonus points for pole and the rest, Power could take the championship with three wins at 50 points apiece and Palou finishing no better than fifth in each race (30 points).
But that’s a lot to ask of Power to win four races — including last weekend in Portland — in a row. If Power places second at the last three with 40 points apiece, he’d need Palou to finish no higher than 10th each time (20 points), and that would be uncharacteristic for IndyCar’s most consistent driver. If Power delivers a trio of thirds (35 points per race), he’d need Palou to come home in 15th (15 points), which seems unlikely.
The greatest problem facing Power, and Herta (67 points back), and McLaughlin (a dire 88 points down) is Palou’s aforementioned dependability. From the 14 races completed this season, Palou has 12 finishes of fifth or better. Said another way, Palou’s only had two poor results from 14 tries; that’s a top-five delivery rate of 86 percent, and now his rivals need him to trip and stumble a few more times in consecutive events, which isn’t his forté.
It’s the crushing consistency that makes Palou a perennial title threat and someone who rarely accommodates the needs of a Power, Herta, or McLaughlin by having one bad finish after another.
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One of Palou’s rough oval results was at the first Iowa race where he crashed on his own while running 11th and he was credited with 23rd at the finish, so it’s not impossible for the Ganassi driver to fall short at least once at Milwaukee or Nashville. But two or three times? That would be uncharted territory for Palou.
The other issue facing Power and the other contenders is Palou’s underappreciated rise in oval competitiveness. He was fifth at the Indianapolis 500, crashed at Iowa 1 but shook it off and rebounded the next day to take second at Iowa 2, and placed fourth at the last oval at World Wide Technology Raceway. He’s still chasing his first oval win, and Penske is expected to continue its oval dominance at the final three races, but Palou’s average oval finishing position is 3.6 when he reaches the checkered flag — and he almost always reaches the checkered flag. Reinforcing the point, Palou finished every oval race in 2023 and did so with an average result of fifth.
Power needs to win and win and win and hope Palou doesn’t stick to his oval average of 3.6, or even 5.0 at the finish lines, because if he does, there’s nothing the Penske driver, or Herta at Andretti Global, or Penske’s McLaughlin can do to prevent him from becoming a three-timer.
With 54 points on Palou’s side, the settling of the championship isn’t centered on how well Power and the rest perform. For the pursuers to have realistic shots at the title, Milwaukee 1, Milwaukee 2 and Nashville will be about Palou and whether he’s struck with adversity. For them to win, he needs to fail. Minus the adversity, Palou is on the way to claiming his third championship in five seasons.
In the Rookie of the Year standings, it will be a Ganassi driver winning the award, and with Linus Lundqvist sitting on a 64-point margin over Kyffin Simpson, Lundqvist in total control.
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The fascinating squabble to secure Penske Entertainment’s final Leaders Circle contracts — which split the bulk of the season’s prize money into 22 equal contracts worth approximately $1 million apiece for those who finish in the top 22 of the entrants’ championship — is getting down to business time. Landing in Milwaukee, the cluster of teams on the right side and wrong side of the top 22 threshold has evolved.
The No. 66 Meyer Shank Racing Honda driven by David Malukas went into Portland in 19th with 154 points and left in 19th with 164. Barring a dramatic downward turn, Shank’s call to park Tom Blomqvist, hire Malukas and get the No. 66 into the green with the Leaders Circle has worked. Credit is also due to Sting Ray Robb, who took the No. 41 A.J. Foyt Racing Chevy from 21st to 20th (156 points) entering the ovals where he’s particularly solid.
Tied at 156 points, but behind the No. 41 Chevy, is the No. 30 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Honda, which went to Portland in 20th with Pietro Fittipaldi and exited in 21st after a punishing race.
In 22nd, it’s the No. 20 Ed Carpenter Racing Chevy, which holds its spot on the bubble (141 points). In 23rd and tied on points at 141, Conor Daly in the No. 78 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevy is locked in a battle with Christian Rasmussen in the No. 20 ECR car — his former ride — to claim the last contract.
Of the many plot lines to follow this weekend, the ECR vs JHR, Rasmussen vs Daly thread is a big one.
Last again among Leaders Circle contenders in 24th is the No. 51 Dale Coyne Racing Honda (133 points), but it wouldn’t take much for Katherine Legge to join the ECR vs JHR scrap if she has a strong showing in Milwaukee. Coyne’s No. 18 Honda remains a distant 25th (107 points).