Michigan football just won a national championship this last year but when it comes to the projected elite of 2024, the Wolverines are on the outside looking in, according to many in the media.
You can could ESPN among those who expect Michigan to take a step back. David Hale broke down all 134 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams into tiers and while the maize and blue aren’t far down the list, they are in Tier 3. (subscription required)
Tier 3: Who needs a quarterback anyway? (four teams)
Last season, Michigan won a national championship. Florida State had an undefeated regular season, LSU had the Heisman Trophy winner, and Dabo Swinney annihilated some poor sap who called into his radio show before reeling off five straight wins to end the year.
These are good programs with tremendous upside.
What they don’t have is a QB1 with a clear-cut track record of elite play.
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J.J. McCarthy was a first-round selection in this year’s NFL draft, but he wasn’t exactly the key player in Michigan’s title run. In the Wolverines’ four defining wins of 2023 — vs. Penn State, Ohio State, Alabama and Washington — McCarthy accounted for just 50 completions and four touchdowns. But what he didn’t do was make a big mistake that cost the Wolverines a game — something that prior QB1s in Ann Arbor had a history of doing. The Shea Patterson era feels like a lifetime ago, but before McCarthy, he was the high-water mark for QB production in Michigan.
That’s absolutely a good point that Michigan doesn’t have a proven quarterback taking over for McCarthy. However, it somewhat ignores the anatomy of the Michigan teams that have dominated the past three years — it hasn’t been about the quarterback as much as it’s been about line play (on both sides) and the run game.
The Wolverines appear to be poised to be dominant on those fronts again this next year, and as long as the incoming starter (whether it be Alex Orji, Davis Warren, or Jack Tuttle) ends up being consistent, accurate, and doesn’t turn the ball over much, then they’ll be in good shape. After all, it was Cade McNamara who beat Ohio State and got the Wolverines to the first College Football Playoff that the team had made. The formula works and could continue to as long as the aforementioned traits are still at the level they were any of the past three years.
And it appears that they are.