Well, it only took four hours for the preseason ACC power rankings to come entirely undone.
Florida State, who put together an undefeated regular season en route to the conference title a year ago, lost its first ACC game in nearly two years when Georgia Tech took the Seminoles down with a last-second field goal on Saturday.
The Seminoles lost a lot of talent to the NFL this offseason, but with 23 wins over the previous two years, many felt head coach Mike Norvell deserved the benefit of the doubt. The opening loss doesn’t end FSU’s season in the new 12-team College Football Playoff, but it certainly makes the rest of the season an uphill battle. But did it open a door for the Blue Devils?
According to ESPN FPI, the answer is pretty much no. Duke’s projected win total remained at 6.0, and the Blue Devils’ chances to win the conference only moved from 1.2% to 1.3%.
In fact, the result actually hurt first-year head coach Manny Diaz’s chances to reach bowl season. On Saturday morning, FPI thought Duke had a 60.2% chance to reach six wins, but that fell to 59.3% on Sunday.
The Blue Devils gained a little boost for their future matchup with Florida State as the ESPN Matchup Predictor moved them from a 24.7% chance to a 28.9% chance, but Duke’s future game against Georgia Tech got affected way more. After FPI estimated that the Blue Devils had a 42.1% chance to beat the Yellow Jackets on the road before the season, that percentage dropped to 29.6% after Saturday’s upset.
The Clemson Tigers, one year after they failed to win 10 games for the first time since 2010, now sit as the favorites to win the ACC. FPI thinks there is a 23.2% chance that Dabo Swinney will win the conference again.