The New York Jets paid a hefty sum for a four-time MVP to lead them to greatness. But for 2024 to be a success, Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have to be phenomenal; he just has to be average.
The Jets are built to weather a storm of bad quarterbacking because this is all they’ve known the past 15 seasons. Rodgers was supposed to be 2023’s savior, but his season ended after four plays due to a torn Achilles. Now he’s back at age 40 — he turns 41 in December — trying to do Tom Brady stuff despite having a very different playing style than the gold standard for quadragenarian quarterbacks.
Rodgers has constantly made special plays look routine, so there’s no guarantee he’ll backslide. But even if he plays up to his 2022 stat line he’ll fall short of the MVP standard that made him a future Hall of Famer. Fortunately for him — and for head coach Robert Saleh — there are contingency plans in place. New York can be a Super Bowl contender even if Rodgers looks like just another guy out there.
Which may very well be the case.
The Jets are counting on a 40-year-old coming off a major injury and he’s still a significant upgrade at quarterback
Hoooo buddy, if that doesn’t explain the Zach Wilson era, nothing does.
From a logical standpoint, Rodgers is a risky bet. He’s a quarterback with excellent processing skills, certainly, but his game excels on the back of special physical gifts. A cannon arm that can deliver pinpoint strikes to the sideline even without his feet set. The scrambling awareness and quickness to extend plays and devastate a disheveled secondary.
The arm looks intact as his 41st birthday nears, but it’s fair to wonder about his legs. Rodgers had his least effective season as a runner in 2022, running for the fewest yards in his NFL career as a starter. He recorded a career low 13 scrambles in 17 games, showcasing his age and seeing a dent in his passing efficiency as well.
2022 was Rodgers’ worst season as a full-timer, though some of those struggles can be tied to a receiving corps that was Davante Adams, some useful receiving help from the backfield and little else.
Now he heads into 2024 older and with Garrett Wilson, some useful receiving help from the backfield and… well, something more than “little else” with Mike Williams in tow, but it’s still at least slightly concerning.
Wilson appears to be genuinely special, capable of breaking free for 1,000-plus receiving yards despite catching passes from the lesser Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian. His 1.48 yards per route run (YPRR) last year (down from 1.85 as a rookie) dampen that enthusiasm a bit — that ranked 52nd among NFL wideouts, right behind Indianapolis Colts rookie Josh Downs — but is easy to forgive when you see how heinous his quarterbacks were.
Behind him, things get dicey. Williams will turn 30 years old in October and has played only 16 games the last two seasons. Xavier Gipson’s 0.64 YPRR ranked 113th among 120 qualified receivers last season, right behind overpaid Rodgers huckleberry Allen Lazard. Malachi Corley is a third round rookie and the tight end rotation of Tyler Conklin and Jeremy Ruckert is solid if slightly underwhelming from a receiving standpoint.
That could put pressure on a running game that… well, it could be awesome. We know Breece Hall is capable of magic, an explosive runner who can turn ounces of daylight into pounds of production. His 146 rush yards over expected (RYOE) were fifth best in the NFL last season and he proved his value as a receiver with 76 passes for a vertically challenged offense. Revamping the offensive line with Tyron Smith, John Simpson, Morgan Moses and Olu Fashanu should make everyone, from Rodgers to Hall, better.
Adding Wisconsin beef-back Braelon Allen and South Dakota State breakaway artist Isaiah Davis on Day 3 of the draft provided low cost, high upside additions who can help ease Hall’s burdens. If Rodgers can’t elevate a seemingly thin receiving corps, he’ll have plenty of support elsewhere. And he’ll be able to survive occasional poor performances because…
The Jets defense once again looks like a fire blanket
New York’s defense was overtaxed last season but still one of the league’s best units. A Wilson offense meant only one team in the league held the ball less on offense (2:23 per drive, according to Pro Football Reference). Still, the Jets ranked third in the league in yards allowed, first in yards allowed per play and third in EPA allowed per snap.
A massive component of this was a defense that was able to create chaos in the pocket without sending extra players to the line of scrimmage. New York’s 98 blitzes were the lowest in the NFL — nearly 30 fewer than the third place Las Vegas Raiders. The team’s 48 sacks were seventh-best in the league and its 26.5 percent pressure rate ranked fourth.
There’s a sliver of concern there; Bryce Huff is a Philadelphia Eagle. Hasson Reddick, traded to fill the slot he left behind, is holding out for a larger contract and currently at a stalemate with his new team. But there are still two former first round picks flanking Quinnen Williams as edge rushers between Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald IV. McDonald underwhelmed as a rookie, so Saleh would prefer to have a veteran hand like Reddick available, but this isn’t a lost cause if he fails to report.
That’s because the defense behind that front is stout as hell. Quincy Williams and CJ Mosley are one of the best off-ball linebacker combinations in the league. Cornerback Sauce Gardner has yet to see an NFL season in which he isn’t a first-team All-Pro (he’s two-for-two). DJ Reed is a plus defender alongside him. Michael Carter II has emerged as one of the league’s best slot corners.
If there’s a weakness here it’s at safety, where Jordan Whitehead has departed and been replaced by Chuck Clark. Clark is a perfectly cromulent veteran and fellow starter Tony Adams was fine in his first season (his tackling was uneven, his coverage was mostly solid) at the top of the depth chart last fall and has the capacity to build from there. Over the top help is less of a concern with this team’s group of corners, but if there’s one place to attack it could be deep downfield — especially given the AFC’s laundry list of heavy hitter quarterbacks.
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New York got to seven wins last season even though its primary quarterback was the worst starter in the NFL. That means even a diminished Aaron Rodgers — a ball-protecting, pocket-laden version of the legend he built in Wisconsin — would pave the way to double digit wins.
That’s what we may be in store for in 2024; a 40-year-old coming off a major leg injury whose impact as a scrambler was waning even before all that. But the Jets have an offensive line that should be able to keep him comfortable in the pocket and a handful of high potential players who can keep Rodgers slinging this fall and give him the resources he needs to convince him to run it back in 2025.
But if that doesn’t pan out, the core of an elite defense remains. A mediocre quarterback could keep this team afloat. The bar for Aaron Rodgers, against the standard of Aaron Rodgers seasons, is high. But the bar for Rodgers against Jets quarterbacks is nearly subterranean, and that’s all he has to clear in 2024.