Michigan football is the defending national champion, and despite having made the four-team College Football Playoff each of the past three years, many are questioning the Wolverines’ ability to crack the newly expanded 12-team invitational.
ESPN is taking a look at 30 playoff contenders and Michigan came in ranked No. 12 overall. (subscription required) Naturally, with a new head coach, a ton of key players from last year off to the NFL, and a tougher schedule, there are questions, and Heather Dinich elucidates on those that plague her when it comes to the Wolverines.
Dinich’s take: Michigan is hovering around the bubble, and it would be a significant drop-off for the program to win a national title and then not qualify for a 12-team playoff field. This isn’t last year’s team, though. Nor does it have its CFP-winning head coach, Jim Harbaugh. Michigan ranks No. 126 in the FBS in returning production (40%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Michigan is still going to be extremely competitive in the Big Ten, but the likely scenario is that it will have to jockey for one of the at-large spots. That could be tricky if the Wolverines go 0-3 against Texas, Oregon and Ohio State — and that’s exactly what ESPN’s FPI projects.
Connelly, with his returning production chart, does great work, but he somewhat undersells how much experience the Wolverines have. Many of the newly minted starters this year will have had starter-quality experience in the past. For instance, Kenneth Grant, Derrick Moore, and Josaiah Stewart were all backups, but all three played key roles in the national championship run last year. Donovan Edwards was a starting running back when Blake Corum was injured, and he thrived in that role. Most of the projected offensive line have started games, or have been waiting in the wings.
If next man up is a real thing in college football, then Michigan stands more than a fighting chance. That is, if it can figure out the quarterback position, which does make everything awfully murky.