The same quarterback playing in the same offense with mostly the same players should produce the same results from last year, right? Of course not. The difference is that even if almost nothing changes on a team, they never face the same schedule from year to year. So a part of the valuation of a fantasy player should be if his schedule is easier or more challenging than the previous season.
The fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks by each defense and venue (both at home and away games) were arrayed against each team’s schedule for both 2022 and 2023. Then they are ranked from 1-32 for which teams had the best or worst schedules they played against last year and applied that against what they will face for 2023. Swings of less than 10 in schedule strength ranking say the schedule isn’t reliably different for the player.
See Also: Running Backs | Receivers
Best Schedule Swings
Bryce Young (CAR) – This is a welcomed change. Bryce Young suffered the downside of being the first player drafted in 2023 when he went to a terrible offense that already had that top pick. With one of the worst schedules and a set of receivers limited almost entirely to Adam Thielen, he struggled. But Year 2 is already looking up with a new coaching staff and pass-happy scheme with new receivers. Now one of the biggest swings possible in schedule strength, the deck is getting stacked in favor of Young.
Kirk Cousins (ATL) – This could be spectacular. The Falcons suffered through the Arthur Smith/Desmond Ridder era when passing stats were rock-bottom. The offense already holds the top-drafted running back, wide receiver, and tight end from their respective draft classes. A new offense is getting installs that promise to return the scheme to pass-happy days. And now Cousins shows up as a Top-10 quarterback with a huge upgrade to the Falcons’ schedule.
Deshaun Watson (CLE) – Everything is in order for Deshaun Watson to finally deliver on his potential in Cleveland. He’s healthy again, They added Jerry Jeudy to Amari Cooper for starting wideouts and now he swaps a below schedule to the best on in the NFL. That’s plenty to merit a fantasy backup role that just might end up as a starter again.
Jared Goff (DET) – As if Goff needed any more advantages when he passes, that deadly set of receivers return for another big year in the same scheme and now enjoy a Top-5 schedule.
Caleb Williams (CHI) – This should be fascinating. Unlike Bryce Young last year, the rookie Williams starts his NFL career in a stacked offense that is teeming with talent, the offensive line is finally average again, and he’ll start his career out throwing passes to all those talented receivers while facing a Top-3 passing schedule. He has rare advantages for the top player in the draft.
About the same schedule strength
Expect about the same schedule strength from the above teams. The only notable are the Bengals still saddled with one of the toughest and the Broncos dropping nearly to the bottom.
Worst Schedule Swings
Daniel Jones (NYG) – He’s back this year, amazingly, and already disappointed in every season since he was a rookie. The offense is already challenged enough to get on track each week and now losing Saquon Barkley and facing a below-average schedule won’t make Jones any better. And he has little room left to drop.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – The Fins have a great offense with elite weaponry, so this downturn may not prove a major problem, but it is troubling that they slide down to the worst schedule for quarterbacks.
Baker Mayfield (TB) – This may be a problem. Mayfield turned in a fine season in 2023 for the Buccaneers and wound up with a nice contract for his efforts. The offense has been limited to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and this change in schedule could ding both.
Josh Allen (BUF) – Okay, so the drop isn’t great and it comes when the Bills lose Stefon Diggs and replace him with a rookie. But Allen will add plenty of rushing yardage and scores. He’s been a Top-2 quarterback for the last three years.
Patrick Mahomes (KC) – Not to worry. He has a hefty slide in schedule strength but has always been better tan his opponents and gets new weapons with Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy. He’ll be fine.