2024 Open Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

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The final major championship week of the season is upon us. The 2024 Open Championship will be held at Royal Troon in Scotland, the 1st time this course will host the historic event since 2016 when Henrik Stenson outdueled Phil Mickelson to win the Claret Jug.

Below, we look at BetMGM Sportsbook’s 2024 Open Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

After skipping last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is back in the field this week for the 4th major of 2024 — he’s also No. 1 in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings.

Scheffler is once again the betting favorite, coming in with odds of +550. Rory McIlroy has the 2nd-best odds at +800, the only other player in the field under +1000. The reigning Champion Golfer of the Year, Brian Harman, is +6600 to defend his title and retain the Claret Jug.

Royal Troon is a traditional links-style course with strategically placed pot bunkers and mounding fairways that lead to plenty of rollout off the tee. The greens are smaller than other courses on the Open rota, putting an added emphasis on approach accuracy and scrambling ability. It’s a par 71 and 7,385 yards long, 195 yards longer than it played in 2016. With the course being on the coast, wind is sure to have a significant impact on the playing conditions, too.

Open Championship: Best prop bet picks and predictions

Open Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 7:20 p.m. ET.

Rory McIlroy (+800)

McIlroy is going to win another major at some point … right? This week feels like a golden opportunity for him to bounce back from the U.S. Open heartbreak at Pinehurst at a course that should suit him well. He just needs to figure out how to close on Sunday and kick the putter into gear in the final round.

Collin Morikawa (+1600)

As due as McIlroy is for a win, so is Morikawa. His worst finish in his last 9 individual events is a T-16 at the Wells Fargo in May. He has 6 top-10 finishes in that span and 5 top-5s, which is incredible considering he didn’t manage to secure a win. With Royal Troon being more of a positioning course rather than a bomber’s track, it should suit Morikawa and his accuracy well.

Viktor Hovland (+3300)

Hovland seems to have gotten back on track despite falling down the leaderboard Sunday in the Scottish Open and he’s always been a strong links player. He’s finished 12th, 4th and 13th in 3 career Open Championship starts, so his track record in this tournament is excellent.

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Open Championship picks – Contenders

Tom Kim (+4000)

Kim was a co-runner-up to Harman last year, albeit 6 shots behind the champion. He’s been very good in links tournaments before, including the Scottish Open where he just finished 15th. His play in the last month has been impressive, too, highlighted by a runner-up to Scheffler at the Travelers Championship.

Tony Finau (+4500)

Finau just seems tailor-made for the Open Championship. He’s a terrific ball striker and putting isn’t as critical on these links-style courses, which has led to some impressive finishes in the Open before. Prior to missing the cut last year, he finished 28th or better in 6 consecutive starts, including a 3rd-place showing in 2019.

Aaron Rai (+5500)

Rai is playing some outstanding golf at the moment, finishing in the top 20 in 5 straight starts – a stretch that includes the U.S. Open (T-19) and Genesis Scottish Open (T-4). His record in links events is strong, too, finishing 19th in the Open in 2021.

Louis Oosthuizen (+5500)

At one point, Oosthuizen was one of the best major players in the world and he’s finished runner-up or better in all 4 majors during his career, winning the Open in 2010. A move to LIV Golf has taken the spotlight off of him, but Royal Troon fits his game well because it’s a shorter links course. He has 5 top-10s in 11 starts on LIV this season, too.

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Open Championship picks – Long shots

Alex Noren (+8000)

Noren cooled off with consecutive missed cuts at the U.S. Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic but he got back on track last week in the Scottish Open where he tied for 10th. He has 11 top-25s in 17 starts this season and has 4 top-25s in his last 5 Open Championship starts – a nice combination of recent form and event history.

Dean Burmester (+12500)

Burmester, another LIV player, finished 12th in the PGA Championship and made the cut at the U.S. Open, his only 2 major starts this year. He has a win and 2 other top-5s on LIV this season and finished 11th in the Open 2 years ago.

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