Training camps for most teams begin in about a month, so it’s time for everybody to have the highest possible hopes. Of course, reality will intervene with a quickness for most teams, and only one team will be truly happy when the season is over.
And it’ll probably be the Chiefs again. Sorry, rest of the NFL.
Anyway, when the regular season is over, thoughts turn rapidly to free agency and the draft. And as far as the draft is concerned, every team has staffs of scouts working on next year’s prospects already. As we do the same at Touchdown Wire (though with far smaller professional stakes if we’re wrong), here’s how we see one version of the first round of the 2025 NFL draft.
(Draft positions via the Pro Football Focus Mock Draft simulator. All advanced metrics courtesy of PFF and Sports Info Solutions).
If the Panthers are picking first overall, it means that Dave Canales’ work with Bryce Young didn’t… well, work, and that would add all kinds of questions about the franchise. But let’s assume that the need at edge is addressed here with Tennessee’s James Pearce Jr., who racked up 13 sacks and 52 total pressures in the 2023 season. After trading Brian Burns to the Giants, the Panthers have Jadeveon Clowney and little else of note on the edge, and as Clowney just came off a career year with the Ravens, one never knows how that might work. If the offense does come together, the 6-foot-5, 242-pound Pearce would be a great addition with his speed and agility off the edge.
No matter how things go in Drake Maye’s rookie season under new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, the Patriots will likely head into the 2025 NFL draft as they’ve headed into most drafts over the last 20 or so years — with an increasing need for legitimate receivers. And as Van Pelt likes a vertical game, you could expect that any receiver selected by New England in 2025 would have that as part of his palette. Burden has just about every attribute you want in a modern receiver, and he caught 12 passes of 20 or more air yards on 23 targets for 415 yards and four touchdowns. You add Burden next year to 2024 rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, and all of a sudden, you might have something going on there.
As we speak, the Broncos under defensive coordinator Vance Joseph have Patrick Surtain II and a whole lot of mysteries at cornerback. Surtain is one of the best at his position in the NFL today, but outside of him, there’s probably a bit too much “Levi Wallace as a starter and Damarri Mathis as his backup” for Joseph’s comfort. Not much Denver can do about that this season outside of the trade deadline, but in looking forward to 2025, Michigan’s Will Johnson would be an awesome Surtain bookend. The 2023 stats can be seen below, and the tape explains it to a verbose degree. Johnson is just as conversant in press coverage as he is in off, and he has the kind of sticky coverage and match feet you want in a modern NFL cornerback.
Back in the day, the Titans thought they could get away with trading A.J. Brown to the Eagles, and rolling with 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks as his long-term replacement. So far, that’s been Moneyball in reverse — Burks has shown very little ability to replace Brown in the aggregate or in any other way, and last season, 31-year-old DeAndre Hopkins was the team’s best receiver. As Tennessee has a clear vision for the No. 1 receivers they would prefer, let’s give them one of Those Guys in the 2025 draft — a big, physical speed receiver who can win downfield and at the catch point.
Tetairoa McMillan was one of the most fun collegiate receivers to watch last season, because of his physical gifts, and how he’s aligned them to his game. The rarity of a player who is able to Godzilla his way into contested catches AND just run by safeties should make McMillan a sure bet in the top half of the first round, and he would be WR1 on this team from the moment he stepped into the building.
We don’t really know what the Giants think of Daniel Jones’ NFL future. Probably because Jones has given few decisive answers. Not bad enough to be a bust, and not good enough to approach franchise status is about where he’s landed to date. What we do now is that if Jones doesn’t show development in 2024, his contract extension is reasonable to get out of in 2025, and it might be time for everybody to get off the pot.
If that is the case, and in what now looks like a quarterback-light draft class, Carson Beck could be The Guy. Last season for the Bulldogs, he showed the ability to make professional throws at a high repeatable level. He’s an outstanding intermediate and deep-ball thrower, and he had a 99.4 passer rating under pressure in 2023. Pretty important if you’re playing behind Big Blue’s offensive line as it’s currently constructed.
The Commanders have done a lot this offseason to try and be playoff-relevant for the first time since at least three team names ago, starting with the hire of head coach Dan Quinn and the selection of Jayden Daniels. But when it comes to left tackle… well, that’s still an issue. TCU’s Brandon Coleman has some future potential as a third-round rookie, but when your starter over there is Cornelius Lucas, it might be time for an upgrade. If that’s the case next year, LSU’s Will Campbell could solve some problems.
Watching Campbell’s 2023 tape was a bit of a roller coaster; he had reps in which he was utterly dominant against some of the NCAA’s best pass-rushers, and others in which he showed the need for future development. But from Dallas Turner to Darius Robinson, there were some high-ticket edge-rushers who could tell you about Campbell’s potential.
You’re going to see more than one Michigan defender in this mock, and Mason Graham is one of the most interesting. Last season, Graham had four sacks and 29 total pressures on 251 pass-rushing snaps, and while he did most of his damage inside (37% nose and 55% defensive tackle), he also showed the quickness and nascent edge abilities to surprise offensive tackles in that way. Regardless of his alignment and assignment, Graham is furiously quick to the pocket, and his combination of effort and technique would make him a force in Arizona’s defensive line — a line in serious need of reinforcement.
Speaking of guys who shouldn’t be able to do what they do at their size, there is the matter of Kentucky’s Deone Walker, who flashes quickness you’d expect from someone three inches shorter and 30 pounds lighter. However Walker has obviously been blessed by the Football Gods. Last season, the 6-foot-6, 348-pounder had eight sacks and 51 total pressures from all over the Wildcats’ fronts. Watching him pressure from the edge at his size was a unique experience among other players, but it happened more than once in his case — in fact, one of his sacks and 11 of his pressures came from head over or outside the tackles. Pretty ridiculous. One can only imagine what Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores would do in his blitz-heavy schemes with Walker on board.
The Raiders begin the full-scale Antonio Pierce era with two stopgaps at quarterback in Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew. Both players are adequate in the short term, but as things progress through the 2024 season and beyond, it’ll be time for the next franchise guy. In his one major-college season, Sanders showed a real gift for explosive plays both through the air and on the ground, and he’s a better progression passer and reader than some want to admit. Yes, there are things to clean up, but with another year of development, Sanders would be more than an NFL project.
The NFL of today is all about creating and preventing explosive plays, and last season, Sanders had 44 such plays through the air, and 17 more on the ground. Seems like a skill set you’d want to work with.
If you’re going to be a high-grade linebacker these days, you had best be able to do just about everything the position requires, and that encompasses everything from edge pressure to blitzing to stopping run fits to coverage. More than most in college, Penn State’s Abdul Carter has the potential to be a true game-wrecker in the mold of someone else who wore No. 11 for the Nittany Lions — that Micah Parsons guy. That seems hyperbolic until you watch the 6-foot-3, 250-pound Carter’s tape, and you see him arrayed everywhere from off-ball to the defensive line to the slot.
Right now, Carter’s alpha skill is blowing things up from the second level, but he’s got the ability to do all the things Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald requires from his linebackers. In a system like that, Carter could shore up two or three positional shortfalls all by himself.
Back in Sean Payton’s salad days, the Saints were all about getting the best guards possible to assist Drew Brees in throwing the ball in the ways that were best for him. Now, Dennis Allen’s crew is just looking for a front five that works. The selection of Oregon State tackle Taliese Fuaga with the 24th overall pick in the 2024 draft helps, but there’s so much that’s still undefined along the line. Kelvin Banks Jr. would be a nice fit in New Orleans because he can play both guard and tackle, and he does it all with serious attitude. Last season for the Longhorns at left tackle, Banks allowed one sack and 12 total pressures in 550 pass-blocking snaps, and when it was time to hit the second level, Banks was looking to HUNT opponents.
As a former NFL defensive back himself, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles would obviously like to have the best secondary possible for his team. But outside of stud safety Antoine Winfield Jr., that group is a bit in flux. There is going to be an absolute need for a new No. 1 cornerback who can track and defeat enemy receivers — especially iso receivers — and Notre Dame’s Benjamin Morrison has already shown all the attributes. Especially in the modern NFL, when there’s more of an emphasis on countering quick passing games with press and match coverage, Morrison seems to be an ideal.
Regardless of scheme last season, Morrison allowed 25 catches on 51 targets for 279 yards, 121 yards after the catch, three touchdowns, three interceptions, eight pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 60.8. If you need a cornerback in the 2025 class to put some flair on your defense, you can’t do much better.
There are two things we know about Gus Bradley, the Colts’ defensive coordinator: He wants to call a ton of single-high coverages (59.1% of Indy’s snaps last season), and he loves him some big outside cornerbacks. The latter point might bring Arizona cornerback Tacario Davis into the conversation in the 2025 draft. Last season, the 6-foot-4, 195-pound Davis allowed 23 catches on 54 targets for 290 yards, 121 yards after the catch, four touchdowns, one interception, 13 pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 76.9.
Davis still has a few things to work out regarding staying in phase all the way through the route, but that’s not uncommon with bigger defenders who have more to move. The upside to Davis’ game is that when everything’s in sync, he is an extremely oppressive pass defender who can just wipe receivers off the stat sheet. Bradley seems like the kind of coach who’s just fine with that overall equation.
The Steelers already have one great multi-position safety in Minkah Fitzpatrick, but you can never have too many of those types of players in your defense. So, as Mike Tomlin’s team looks to rebuild its secondary with Fitzpatrick and cornerback Joey Porter Jr. as the tentpoles, let’s give them Georgia safety Malaki Starks. Last season, Starks gave up 18 catches on 35 targets for 200 yards, 86 yards after the catch, three touchdowns, three interceptions, seven pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 61.6. Moreover, Starks did his thing everywhere from free to box to slot, which is what you find from more and more collegiate safeties these days.
Here’s a question that will have a lot of legroom over the next year or so: Is Colorado’s Travis Hunter a better receiver or cornerback? I would argue that at this point in his collegiate career, Hunter has more value as a receiver, but given the raw tools he’s already shown, his ultimate potential might be on the defensive side of the ball. Last season, that’s where Hunter allowed 30 catches on 53 targets for 414 yards, 175 yards after the catch, five touchdowns, three interceptions, five pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 89.7. Not bad for a guy playing his first season of major college football.
Now, as a receiver, Hunter was a serious problem for opposing defenses. Seven of his catches last season came on 14 targets of 20 or more air yards for 275 yards and a touchdown. And the tape showed the kind of size/speed combination you can’t just wake up and hope for.
Regardless of where Hunter best lines up in the NFL, we’re betting that Sean McVay’s Rams will find a place for him.
Now that Trevor Lawrence has secured the bag, it’s all about maximizing the things Lawrence does well, and giving him the best surrounding cast possible to minimize the things that still need work. Yes, the Jags already have one high-producing tight end in Evan Engram, but Engram’s 2025 cap situation is a spicy meatball, and head coach Doug Pederson has positive experiences creating winning situations with two-tight end sets.
So here, we give Jacksonville the services of Michigan’s Colston Loveland, who proved to be an agent of chaos in Michigan’s offense last season, especially as a vertical dimension in Jim Harbaugh’s offense.
The Browns already have Myles Garrett, Za’Darius Smith, and Ogbo Okoronkwo on the edge in Jim Schwartz’s defense, but you can never have too many pass-rushers, and the addition of Nic Scourton would be especially intriguing. In 2023 for Purdue, the 6-foot-4, 280-pound Scourton totaled eight sacks and 42 pressures playing all but seven of his snaps on the outside. But as is the case with Smith, you can see the potential for multi-gap disruption, and there are few edge defenders in the 2025 class who bring Scourton’s combination of size, speed to the pocket, and effort to bring down the quarterback, wherever he goes.
The Bears did a metric ton this offseason to improve their offense, and shed their 75-year quarterback curse — when Sid Luckman is your last true franchise quarterback, that’s a real problem. So, let’s say that Caleb Williams throwing to D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen, and Cole Kmet produces the desired results. Why would Chicago come back in the 2025 draft and select a running back in the first round when the depth chart includes D’Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson?
Because Ollie Gordon II is a different breed of running back. You don’t often see backs standing 6-foot-2 and weighing 215 pounds running like scatbacks with Gordon’s outside speed and jump cuts. Once you factor in the power and his receiving chops, Gordon could very well be the kind of running back who really matters.
The Chargers come into the 2024 season with veteran Denzel Perryman and rookie Junior Colson as their linebackers, and new DC Jessie Minter obviously has familiarity with Colson from their days together at Michigan. Good players, but let’s say that in 2025, the Chargers want to avail themselves of a linebacker with even more positional versatility and athletic juice. It would be tough to do better than LSU’s Harold Perkins. Last season for the Tigers, Perkins had six sacks, 24 total pressures, 48 solo tackles, 33 stops, and he allowed 27 catches in 42 targets for 276 yards, 224 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, one interception, three pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 73.1. Perkins did all that everywhere from the edge to overhang safety, and this is where you should go if you want the linebacker of today.
Sometimes, players have to adjust to injuries. That was the case for Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka in 2023. An October ankle injury forced him to miss three games, and the “tightrope” surgery he underwent to get him back on the field left him without the vertical dimension to his game that was obvious in 2022. So, Egbuka did what great players do — he adapted. He still caught 41 passes on 60 targets for 514 yards and four touchdowns, but his repertoire was more hitches, slants, and outs than it had been the year before. Last season, Egbuka proved to be a do-it-all receiver under less than ideal circumstances, and that will help him through a (hopefully) healthy 2024.
As for his fit on the Texans, Houston already has Tank Dell as the dynamic vertical component, and Nico Collins as the No. 1 overall receiver. Egbuka’s understanding of the game, combined with his experience with C.J. Stroud, would make him an ideal finishing point in Bobby Slowik’s offense.
If the Jets are drafting this late, one of two things happened: Aaron Rodgers beat the odds in his age 41 season, or the defense was so good, Gang Green was able to transcend whatever was going on at quarterback. Either way, there is an eventual need for Rodgers’ replacement, especially if he becomes our next Vice President. With that in mind, and in a not-so-deep quarterback class, Texas’ Quinn Ewers is a safe, if not purely amazing, prospect.
There is a default need for quarterbacks who do everything well enough, and nothing really horribly, because not every NFL team is going to wind up with Patrick Mahomes. NFL teams make bets on those types of quarterbacks all the time. After Zach Wilson’s on-field inconsistencies, and Rodgers’ off-field inconsistencies, maybe the Jets just need a warm, safe place at the game’s most important position.
Every year, I complain about the fact that collegiate edge-rushers aren’t given enough tools by their coaches to be truly ready for the NFL. There are exceptions of course, but this is why so many NFL pass-rushers take massive leaps in their second season. My poster child for the 2024 draft class (so far) is Ohio State’s Jack Sawyer, who put up three sacks and 22 total pressures in the 2023 season despite the fact that he doesn’t have a lot of tools in his toolbox yet beside the bull-rush. Maybe Sawyer will pick up a few techniques in 2024, and maybe that will cause the Falcons (or another pass rush-needy team) to consider him a first-round talent.
The Packers went all-in on the safety position this offseason with the signing of ex-Giants star Xavier McKinney in free agency, and the selections of Georgia’s Javon Bullard and Oregon State’s Kitan Oladapo in the draft. New defensive coordinator Jeff Haley has promised more aggressive coverage concepts in 2024 than Joe Barry had in 2023, which should be good news for a cornerback group that wasn’t at its best under Barry’s tutelage.
If the Packers discover that their cornerback group needs to be amplified with personnel as well as scheme, there are few better options than Ohio State’s Denzel Burke. Last season, Burke allowed 25 catches on 48 targets for 277 yards, 147 yards after the catch, one touchdown, one interception, seven pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 67.8. Most importantly, Burke has shown the kinds of press and match coverage attributes that are top priorities in today’s NFL.
We conclude the Ohio State portion of our program with Quinshon Judkins, who transferred from Ole Miss after two prominent seasons. In 2023, Judkins gained 1,159 yards and scored 15 touchdowns on 271 carries, tallying 871 yards after contact, 78 forced missed tackles, and 15 runs of 15 or more yards. It’s entirely possible that Jerry Jones and his crew will focus on a running back early on in the 2025 draft, and if this is where they’re picking, Judkins could be the best on the boards.
It will be fascinating to see what the Eagles’ cornerback room looks like under Vic Fangio. Change is coming; we know that. The first-round selection of Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell, and the second-round selection of Iowa versatile slot defender Cooper DeJean tells you that. Darius Slay is already the established outside cornerback, but James Bradberry’s future is not as secure.
If more change is required in 2025, Oregon’s Jabbar Muhammad might be an ideal Fangio defender. The former Washington star allowed 42 catches on 82 targets last season for two touchdowns, three interceptions, 12 pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 60.6. Interestingly, Muhammad played far more reps outside than in the slot at 5-foot-10 and 183 pounds, and he looked dominant more often than not. Fangio prizes positional versatility in his defensive backs, and he’s not necessarily programmed to put a player in a specific spot based on his size.
The Lions did everything they possibly could this offseason to address a cornerback group that was one of the franchise’s few obvious weaknesses in 2023, and maybe the combination of Carlton Davis, Terrion Arnold, and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. will solve that. Detroit is far less problematic at safety with Kerby Joseph and Ifeatu Melifonwu, but if defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn wants reinforcement there, maybe Penn State’s Kevin Watson Jr. would be of interest. At 6-foot-2 and 206 pounds, Winston has the ability to come down as you’d expect from a linebacker, and he’s been everywhere from free to box to slot to outside cornerback in coverage.
The Bengals have a good cadre of edge-rushers with veterans Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, and 2023 first-round pick Myles Murphy has shown potential. But it may be that when the 2025 draft rolls around, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo thinks it’s time to avail himself of more at the position. And if Cincinnati is picking around here in the first round, Louisville’s Ashton Gilotte would be an interesting addition.
Last season, the 6-foot-3, 275-pound Gilotte had nine sacks and 58 total pressures, with three tackles for loss and two forced fumbles against the run. For his size, Gilotte brings impressive speed to the pocket, and he also has an El Destructo series of techniques, from bull-rush to swim moves, that allow him to create further havoc. Gilotte also brings positional versatility to the table; two of his sacks and 13 of his pressures came when he was aligned inside the tackles.
The Bills are currently engaged in a roster rebuild that they hope is of the soft variety that allows them to remain a Super Bowl contender in the short term. If that’s to happen, someone is going to have to step up as an alpha edge defender. Leonard Floyd, now with the 49ers, led the team in sacks last season with 12, and only Greg Rousseau had more total pressures (62) last season for the defense than Floyd’s 45. What’s left is a potentially compelling bunch that will need to get quarterback pressure through scheme as much as pure talent.
Which might put EDGE at the top of the Bills’ to-do list in the 2025 draft. And if that’s the case, Princely Umanmielen — now of Ole Miss and formerly of Florida — could be near the top of the board. Last season for the Gators, the 6-foot-5, 255-pound Umanmielen had seven sacks and 45 total pressures in 243 pass-rushing snaps. Unlike a lot of collegiate edge-rushers, Umanmielen already has a well-developed palette of moves, and his bend around the edge is a specific and valuable trait.
Last season, the Ravens led the NFL in rushing attempts (598), rushing yards (2,969), rushing yards after contact (1,673) and yards per carry (5.0, tied with the Cardinals and Dolphins), so the ground game is clearly a big part of Todd Monken’s plan — one could say that it should have been a bigger part in Baltimore’s AFC Championship loss to the Chiefs. In any event, the RB depth chart as it stands now with Derrick Henry, Keaton Mitchell, and Justice Hill should work in a short-term sense, but the acquisition of Henry on a two-year, $16 million deal speaks to the future need, as well.
When the Ravens head into the 2025 draft, they may be looking for running backs up top, and North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton has carried on a nice tradition at the position, The same school that turned out Javonte Williams and Michael Carter in the 2021 draft now has the 6-foot-2, 220-pound Hampton, who totaled 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns on 254 carries. With equal efficiency in gap and zone schemes, and a great mixture of power and speed (1,072 yards after contact, 67 forced missed tackles, 18 runs of 15 or more yards), Hampton has the tools to be a franchise back for any franchise who still believes in such designations.
The 49ers are not walking around with a ton of weaknesses right now, and that’s been the case for a couple of years. They have a quarterback in Brock Purdy who’s still on an extreme lowball rookie contract, which gives GM John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan a lot of personnel flexibility before Purdy’s bill comes due.
If there’s one clear issue overall, it’s on the right side of the offensive line, especially right tackle Colton McKivitz, who allowed nine sacks and 44 total pressures last season. If the team decides on an upgrade for the 2025 season (and the team should), Arizona’s Jonah Savaiinaea would be a great fit in a Shanahan offense that is equally about a fully-formed passing game, and as multiple a run game as you’ll see in the NFL today. Last season, the 6-foot-5, 335-pound Savaiinaea allowed two sacks and 11 total pressures with a style that veers between mauler and assassin. Savaiinaea played 78% of his snaps at right tackle last season with the rest at right guard, so there’s some functional versatility there as well.
The Chiefs won their third Super Bowl in the last five years with a receiver group that was problematic at best. The additions of Marquise Brown in free agency and Xavier Worthy in the draft were designed to point Andy Reid’s team in the direction of the near-impossible three-peat, but what the team still lacks is that consistent intermediate receiver with the knack for exploiting voids in coverage.
When Evan Stewart was chopping it up at Texas A&M, he had those skills strongly on display, and that should continue now that he’s with Oregon. In 2023, Stewart caught 38 passes on 59 targets for 514 yards and four touchdowns despite a leg injury that cost him multiple games, and had him saying some things about his care once he decided to hit the transfer portal.
But when he was on the field? Stewart had all the skills one imagines Reid and Patrick Mahomes could have all kinds of fun with.